About two weeks into the month of December, when the Himalayan peaks should have received at least two moderate spells of snow, many still remained grey.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has told Hindustan Times that due to the absence of a strong Western Disturbance, there is hardly any snowfall in the upper and lower reaches of the Himalayas in the month of December.
What are Western Disturbances?
Western Disturbances are nothing but cyclonic formations that originate in the Mediterranean Sea that bring winter rains and snow to North-West India from November onwards. As per reports, 2-3 moderate to strong Western Disturbances are observed over the North-West part of India in November and December, but this, but none were observed since November 10.
According to IMD, Himachal Pradesh is 97 per cent deficient in rainfall/snowfall; In December, 80 percent of Jammu and Kashmir and Uttarakhand did not receive any rain or snowfall. It said that Leh and some other parts of Jammu and Kashmir received light snowfall on December 9 due to a weak Western Disturbance.
K Jenamani, Senior Scientist, National Weather Forecasting Centre, IMD told HT, “Many areas in the higher reaches of the Himalayas have not received snowfall this time. This is mainly because no strong Western Disturbance has affected the region since November. It’s too early to say whether this is unusual. We have to see whether a strong WD strikes this region in the second fortnight of December. To date we do not have estimates of WD affecting this region immediately. That doesn’t mean there won’t be a cold wave.”
Mahesh Palawat, vice-president, climate and meteorology, Skymet Weather, said, “The hilly states including Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir received almost no snowfall in December. Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh received some snowfall in October and November. It was there but not enough. It’s very unusual.”
He further told HT, “Only two weak western disturbances affected the western Himalayan region this month. From November, three or four intense WDs, which bring winter rain or snow, should have affected the region. Due to this, the temperature has become very hot in many areas and there has been no snow.
He further said that winter sports are also yet to start in the hill states and the number of tourists is less as compared to other years.
“Low humidity due to weak WD, hence no fog and clear sunlight. Clear days increase day temperature,” he said.
When asked whether western disturbances would affect the region till Christmas, he said, “Snowfall may start only towards the end of December as per the models; A moderate WD is expected.”
The lack of snowfall could affect the winter crop, especially wheat, if the temperature does not drop below a certain threshold, he added.
Meanwhile, the IMD in its current forecast has predicted that cold wave conditions are likely to prevail over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab and North Rajasthan during December 16-18.
According to IMD, there is likely to be a gradual fall in minimum temperature by about 2 degree Celsius over northwest India during 24 hours and no significant change thereafter.
“The minimum temperature over Central India is very likely to fall by 2-4 degree Celsius during next 4-5 days and no significant change thereafter. The minimum temperature is very likely to fall by 2-3°C over East India during next 2 days with no significant change thereafter.
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