2022 assembly elections are here to change direction

The Congress had never won in Karhal before and that year the party fielded a woman who was new to politics. She believed that she could win only with the support of women and downtrodden classes, but the goal was not easy.

During the campaign he visited a Dalit family, where the head of the family was a fine poet. He was impressed by the candidate’s demeanor, and began attending party events, where he recited poetry, and his melodious voice attracted crowds. The poems essentially praised the Congress and its candidate, and they began to harass the local casteist musclemen. The candidate did not do so, but the party was able to save its deposit for the first time. One evening the poet along with his wife and children came to the woman leader’s house to seek shelter. He was bleeding and scared. The bahubalis had beaten the poet badly and threatened to kill him. A shocking aspect of the polling was that Dalit voters could not cast their votes in almost half the polling stations. The poet was beaten up as a warning against Dalits trying to cast their votes in future. However, no one knew that change was about to come.

Somewhere far away, a person named Kanshi Ram was working to prevent such incidents. After much deliberation, he laid the foundation of Dalit Shoshit Samaj Sangharsh Samiti (DS4) in 1981. Encouraged by the massive support he received, he founded the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in 1984. In just six years, he became so powerful that Mulayam Singh of the Samajwadi Party joined hands with him. Singh won the Lok Sabha elections for the first time in 1991 from Etawah. Four years later, Mayawati, the second tallest leader of the BSP, was elected chief minister in 1995 – unexpectedly in a state where Dalits had been barred from voting 10 years earlier.

Since then, the Dalit electorate has emerged as a major political force in the state. A total of 86 seats in UP are reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST). The throne of Lucknow goes to the one who manages to conquer most of them. In 2017, the BJP had won 70 of these seats. The SP, which won an absolute majority in 2012, won 58. The BSP won a majority in 2007 and its victory in 62 of these 86 reserved seats was a major contributor to achieving the magic figure.

However, these reserved seats are only indicative. SC and ST voters also influence the election results for general seats. How will they choose this time? Dalit voters have changed their choice many times in UP. Earlier he used to be with Congress. Later, the BSP was able to garner their votes. After that BJP made inroads in this ‘vote bank’.

Broadly speaking, Dalits have supported Congress and BSP for three decades each, but now, with the generational changes, the mindset of Dalit voters has also changed. Young voters do not stick with a leader for long. Will the BJP be able to make a deeper dent in the BSP’s vote bank this time? The saffron party is working hard in this direction by providing many facilities including food grains to the poor.

It is often said that Dalit and backward voters do not go together. This is actually a half-truth. In the 1990s, the SP and BSP formed a coalition government. This jugalbandi did not work as leaders prioritized individual ambitions over social alliances. Not only this, Mayawati had gone a step further in 2007. She was successful in forming a Dalit-Brahmin alliance. Had she been able to continue this, she herself would have risen to the top of politics, as well as having the distinction of being the inspiration for a unique social reform. She couldn’t do that. Now the SP wants to take advantage of the resulting situation.

Significantly, Mayawati will start her formal election campaign on February 2. One can recall that even in 2007, he had coined such a slogan before the elections, which reversed all the equations. Will she be able to repeat it this time? There are many such questions, for which we will have to wait till 10 March, but these are the questions that give us a taste of our political reality. These questions can also pave the way for economic and social development. The 2022 assembly elections are here to change direction.

Shashi Shekhar is the editor-in-chief, India. Views expressed are personal.