The duration of the agreement will entirely depend on the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Bengaluru:
While both Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar were in the race for the post of Chief Minister of Karnataka, it was clear from the beginning that Siddaramaiah had an edge. Karnataka Congress President DK Shivakumar worked very hard, invested huge effort and resources and has a big stake in the Congress victory, but he has to bide his time.
It must be emphasized that the agreement that has been worked out will depend entirely on the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, both in Karnataka and at the national level.
Here are some key reasons why the scales are tipped strongly in favor of the former chief minister, and also why it is a lucrative deal for DK Shivakumar
1. DK Shivakumar is facing Income Tax and Enforcement Directorate cases related to assets disproportionate to known sources of income. There is a strong possibility that the BJP will aggressively pursue these matters. The sight of a chief minister ambushed in such cases could be damaging for the Congress ahead of the 2024 elections, especially as the party has won on a strong “40 per cent government” campaign, fueled by corruption charges against the outgoing BJP government. focuses on.
Even as the Congress was discussing who would be the chief minister, the Supreme Court deferred hearing on the CBI’s plea against the Karnataka High Court order granting an interim stay on the probe into alleged illegal assets of DK Shivakumar. It is a reminder that matters are alive and that there is a shadow. This was always a major and deciding factor against him in the race for the top post in Karnataka.
2. Siddaramaiah is the tallest leader among the newly elected legislators in Karnataka. His appeal is across various regions of Karnataka and he has always had the support of a majority of the party’s MLAs. His stature and the experience of having served a full term were firmly on his side. In fact, he would have been the clear choice, had it not been for a stiff challenge from the state Congress president. In fact, many former cabinet ministers were strongly in favor of Siddaramaiah as he is a time-tested administrator.
3. Given that DK Shivakumar belongs to the OBC Vokkaliga caste, the Congress could have alienated other caste groups from the party by nominating him as the chief minister. After its emphatic victory in the elections, with a historic vote share of over 42 per cent that would include all social classes, the Congress could not afford to alienate non-Vokkaliga voices.
Siddaramaiah’s appointment may not go down well with the Vokkaliga caste groups, but a powerful accommodation for Shivakumar as his deputy could offset some of that negativity. Negotiations would not have worked.
4. The scales were strongly in favor of Siddaramaiah, but it was Shivakumar’s hard bargaining that forced the Congress to make an exception to the “one person, one post” rule and continue with Shivakumar as state Congress president and deputy chief minister .
This gives him considerable influence over the cabinet and a firm grip on the party.
5. Mr. Shivakumar is expected to get some important portfolios for himself and also for those close to him. This is to ensure that the balance of power in the cabinet is not upset.
6. During Siddaramaiah’s previous tenure (2013-2018), he also refused to induct DK Shivakumar into the cabinet for the first year. There was a perception that Siddaramaiah was autocratic, and veteran party leaders, including Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge, were sidelined from state affairs.
In many ways, Mr Shivakumar’s hard bargaining, supported by some senior leaders, was mainly focused on controlling Siddaramaiah. While he knew he was likely to win the race, he wanted to make sure he did not have complete control. This objective seems to have been achieved and Mr Shivakumar is poised to become a force to be reckoned with in the cabinet and the party. This also ensures that after the 2024 elections, if any changes are to be implemented, the balance of power is not tilted strongly towards the Chief Minister.
Arguably, the Congress has managed to find a solution that is the best possible outcome for both the claimants. However, both Siddaramaiah and Mr. Shivakumar are from the old Mysore region and the challenge for the Congress now is to have representation from all regions and social groups in the cabinet. Those optics are essential in the run-up to 2024.
After all, a year is a long time in Indian politics and the formula for this compromise may be revisited after the 2024 elections.