aAccording to the United Nations, about 50 million people There are slaves all over the world.
The report, released by the United Nations on September 12, 2022 international labor organization, International Organization for Migration and human rights groups Walk Free Foundationrevealed that 28 million people are in forced labor and another 22 million are in forced marriages.
Forced labor includes domestic work, exploitation in agriculture and manufacturing. It also includes state-imposed forced labor and commercial sexual exploitation. Poverty is a powerful driver for forced labor around the world, particularly in India, East Asia and West Africa.
Forced marriage, affecting mainly women and girls, often has gender, patriarchal roots.
The United Nations’ latest estimate of 50 million has gone up substantially Since its last estimate in 2017When he pointed out that 40 million people had been enslaved.
As a person studying modern slaveryI’m curious by the global projections.
Are 50 million people really living in slavery today, as the United Nations claims?
What explains how the global estimate increased by 10 million in five years? Does this mean that we will see an annual increase of 2 million slaves each year going forward?
Global projections are getting better
Global estimates of modern slavery have improved over time.
In 2013, Walk Free’s first global slavery index 29.8 million people are reported to have been enslaved.
But this estimate was based almost entirely on expert input, rather than on nationally representative random sample surveys – the gold standard of research design.
For this 2016 Global Slavery Index, walk free partnered with Gallup and launched a random sample survey for 25 countries.
By partnering with the world’s leading polling organization and using advanced survey techniques, Walk Free was able to embark on a groundbreaking task.
However, Walk Free produced global estimates for 168 countries, not just the 25 countries it surveyed. This meant for other countries in its 2016 estimate, Walk Free relied on both expert input and statistical techniques – and did not use only nationally representative survey data.
devil in details
The same technique of combining survey data with statistical techniques applies to the United Nations’ global projections for 2017 and 2022.
For this 2017 EstimatesWorking with the United Nations, Walk Free and other organizations, launched the survey in 48 countries from 2014 to 2016. and for 2022 reportThe United Nations collected data from 68 countries to estimate forced marriage and from 75 countries to estimate forced labour.
Although the report revealed a clear increase in the number of nationally representative surveys to generate these global estimates, it fell short of measuring most countries in the world.
There are currently 193 Member States in the United Nations. The UN’s Global Estimates for 2022, which surveyed 75 countries to estimate bonded labor, did not survey the remaining 118 countries, instead basing its numbers on expert input and statistical techniques.
Nor did the United Nations publish a complete list of countries for which it conducted nationally representative surveys in 2017. It is difficult to know, then, how many of the 48 countries sampled for the 2017 report were replicated for the 2022 report.
We also don’t have publicly available data for those 48 countries, let alone the countries surveyed for the 2022 global estimate.
And without access to any statistical calculations made by the United Nations for any estimates, scholars cannot independently replicate the United Nations’ findings for the 2017 or 2022 reports.
Comparison of Apples and Oranges
This lack of transparency makes it difficult to claim that the number of slaves actually increased by 10 million from 2017 to 2022.
Two things are happening here. The United Nations seems to be getting much better at estimating global slavery. But since survey techniques are improving over time, comparisons are impossible.
Consider the analogy of a bathroom scale. In weighing yourself, you can first buy an inexpensive scale so that you can get an idea of how much you weigh. But then, being more concerned about your health, you buy a better scale that gives you a more accurate measurement.
This does not mean that your weight has changed radically. It simply means that you have a better understanding of your weight now.
This analogy applies to measuring contemporary slavery.
The scale used by Walk Free was new in 2013, and improved by 2016. The scale used by the UN in 2017 was more accurate, and the figures for 2022 got even better.
But to go back and say there are 10 million more people enslaved today than in 2017 is not warranted.
finding clarity
The global projections of modern slavery are fascinating and important.
The 50 million figure is one of the best estimates of modern slavery available today and could prompt policymakers to take action. The problem cannot be solved without awareness of this crime.
Nevertheless, going forward, the public still needs more reliable, more valid and more transparent data. Science advances on the promise that the data is freely available to enable others to replicate or improve the analysis.
Monty DuttaAssociate Professor of Political Science, University of Richmond
This article is republished from Conversation Under Creative Commons license. read the original article,
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