File photo of Amit Shah and Chandrababu Naidu in New Delhi. , Photo Credit: Moorthy RV
TeaUnion Home Minister Amit Shah’s attack on the Chief Minister on the YS Jagan Mohan Reddy-led government at a public meeting in Visakhapatnam has set the tone for politics in Andhra Pradesh ahead of the 2024 general and assembly elections. , Mr Shah claimed Mr Reddy’s government was “ridden with corruption”. He accused the government of turning Visakhapatnam into a hub of “anti-social elements” and “drug peddlers”.
The general secretary of the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP) demanded that Mr Shah provide evidence to prove his allegations. And for the first time after becoming chief minister, YS Jagan Mohan Reddy indicated in Palnadu days after the home minister was attacked that his party may not get the support of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 elections. This has given rise to speculation that the winning combination of the 2014 elections – the BJP, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Jana Sena Party (JSP) – may again be on the count.
While all three parties performed well in 2014, in 2018 TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu walked out of the National Democratic Alliance alleging that the Center did not fulfill its promises of special status to Andhra Pradesh. Many believe that this was Mr. Naidu’s biggest political blunder. He not only walked out of the coalition, but also launched a scathing attack against Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Mr Shah. When Mr. Modi visited Andhra Pradesh, TDP workers showed black flags and pelted stones at Mr. Shah’s convoy when the Home Minister visited Tirupati, thus burning bridges with the BJP.
However, after being defeated by Mr. Jagan Reddy in the 2019 elections, Mr. Naidu is trying hard to align with the BJP. He had met Mr Shah in New Delhi about two weeks ago, ahead of the Home Minister’s visit to Visakhapatnam. BJP President JP Nadda was also present in the meeting. JSP leader Pawan Kalyan and Shri Naidu have also met several times in the last one year. All this has led to speculations of an alliance between the three parties. Some believe that BJP’s softening of stand towards TDP could be due to the national party’s disastrous performance in Karnataka.
There is also some speculation that the Naidu-Shah meeting was more focused on working out a formula in Telangana, where the contest is more direct between the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), the Congress picking up steam and the BJP. Andhra Pradesh has 25 Lok Sabha seats and Telangana has 17 seats. The BJP is aiming to make inroads in both, as after Karnataka, the Telugu-speaking states are its best bet in the south.
However, the role of BJP in Andhra Pradesh is still unclear as compared to Telangana. Many have questioned the timing of the transfer of funds by the central government to the state government. In the last one month, the central government has given around Rs 23,000 crore to the state government under the revenue deficit grant and the Polavaram project.
BJP MP GVL Narasimha Rao defended the grant, saying it was given by the central government and not the BJP. He said the grant was given under the provisions of the Andhra Pradesh Reorganization Act.
Even if there is an alliance between these three parties, it will have to face a tough challenge. Sri Reddy’s schemes are popular among the people. In the latest budget, he allocated over Rs 54,000 crore for Direct Benefit Transfer schemes, which is about 20% of the total expenditure outlay of Rs 2.79 lakh crore. More importantly, despite the financial crunch and hue and cry by the opposition that the government was funding the scheme by pushing the state into debt crisis, the chief minister never called off his plans. So the beneficiaries of these schemes can be loyal supporters. He is now seen addressing the issues of state government employees as well. The New Guaranteed Pension Scheme seems to have been well supported by the agitating employees.
Meanwhile, TDP and JSP have started reaching out among the people. TDP leader Nara Lokesh’s Yuva Galam Padayatra has received a good response in the Rayalaseema region, while Pawan Kalyan’s Varahi Yatra has created waves in the East Godavari region. While Mr. Naidu is desperate to revive the TDP’s past glory, the BJP is trying its best to garner some support in the south. Whether the speculation of an alliance turns into reality or not remains to be seen.