File photo of AIMIM leader Akbaruddin Owaisi in Hyderabad. , photo credit: Giri KVS
TeaThe brawl between Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) minister KT Rama Rao and All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) leader Akbaruddin Owaisi in the Telangana Assembly last week would have been considered routine but for Mr Owaisi’s remarks. That his party will contest 50 seats in the upcoming assembly elections and win at least 15 seats.
This took political circles by surprise as the AIMIM has been seen as a close ally of the BRS since the bifurcation of United Andhra Pradesh. Also, the remarks come at a time when the BRS is entering national politics with an aim to emerge as a strong opposition party to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at the Centre. AIMIM has always taken an anti-BJP stand. Its leaders openly air their reservations about the ruling party at the Center to emerge as champions of minority issues across the country. Though AIMIM and BRS have never forged an alliance, AIMIM has always had an understanding with the ruling dispensation, be it led by Congress or BRS.
Since 2013, AIMIM has been trying to expand its base outside Hyderabad by contesting assembly elections, but without success. The party won five seats in the 2020 Bihar assembly elections. But last year four of its MLAs joined the Rashtriya Janata Dal. AIMIM’s performance in the 2022 Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat elections was dismal. In both the states, its candidates did not get a single seat and its vote share was less than one per cent. But the presence of AIMIM badly affected other major opposition parties like Congress, Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party. AIMIM has won civic elections in several states, but has failed to convert these victories into seats in assembly and Lok Sabha elections.
In the midst of this poor performance, Mr. Owaisi has challenged the ruling party in Telangana. But BRS leaders are perplexed. A BRS leader said, “If the AIMIM wants to contest elections this year, it will only benefit the BJP, as it happened in other states.” For this reason, some leaders sometimes call AIMIM the ‘B team’ of BJP.
AIMIM has always contested from those seats where its victory is certain. The old city of Hyderabad is its home ground. In 2018, it contested eight seats and won seven. The party has two MLCs in the Legislative Council and Mr. Owaisi’s brother Asaduddin Owaisi represents the Hyderabad parliamentary constituency.
AIMIM contested only 50 of the 150 mandals of the Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation three years ago. It won 45 seats. This gave outside support to the BRS, which won 56 divisions. The TRS-MIM alliance ensured that the mayor’s post went to the ruling party. It was in these elections that the BJP gained an impressive lead.
Telangana has 119 assembly seats. Twenty-five constituencies are in the twin cities and their suburbs are spread over Medchal Malkajgiri and Ranga Reddy districts. In the House now, the BRS has 102 members, the AIMIM seven, the Congress five, the BJP three and the All India Forward Bloc one. One seat is held by an independent candidate and one MLA is nominated from the Anglo-Indian community. If AIMIM is serious about contesting 50 seats, it can get minority votes only in 29 assembly seats. Most of these are located in the twin cities and their suburbs. AIMIM’s influence is limited to some urban areas in North and South Telangana, but it is not enough to win elections. AIMIM has failed to reach out to the rural voters. It has always indicated to its cadres that if AIMIM candidates are not in the fray, they should vote for parties opposed to the BJP.
If AIMIM tries its luck on 50 seats, then BRS and Congress may get a setback on some seats. This could upset the apple cart of the BRS and deal a blow to the Congress, which is dependent on minority votes. The BJP may also not benefit much as Telangana has never seen communal polarization on such a large scale before elections.
Since 2018, AIMIM has indirectly supported the BRS in electoral battles outside Hyderabad. Its recent decision may have an impact on the performance of the BRS as the minority votes, which were going to the ruling party, may get split. AIMIM may spoil the game for BRS and Congress as it is not in a position to win seats by consolidating Muslim votes.