We are all frogs,” said a strange placard once held by a climate activist. This was probably a reference to the ‘boiling frog syndrome’ many of us may be unaware of what the planet awaits. Because it gradually warms, except that we have no option but to exit the danger. Due to the awareness generated by the periodic alarms raised by the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a The dire fate is yet to be averted. The latest of these warnings, the second part of its sixth assessment, was presented on Monday. The first, last August, was on climate science. It’s about our vulnerability and adaptation to global warming. Covid came on the way to its scheduled release last September, but the wider threats we face have already been determined. Global temperatures are 1.1-1.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, It has started to wreak havoc around the world, and going above 1.5 °C is more than a decimal difference. would be much worse – as that could be a tipping point. The worry is that we may cross that mark by the middle of the century. The report warns that nearly 3 billion people will be exposed to its harshest effects, a large part of which is in India. What’s new this time around the various sector-specific scenarios outlined by the IPCC report. Indian urban dwellers, in particular, may be most affected by the heat trapped on the earth by pollutants conveyed by us humans.
Apart from coastal cities, urban agglomerations that extend from Punjab to our north-eastern states to the sub-Himalayan plains will be most severely affected, if emissions remain on their current trajectory. In the direct line of danger would be cities like Lucknow and Patna, which could reach ‘wet-bulb’ temperatures of 35°C by the end of this century, with Chennai, Mumbai, Indore and others not doing much better. Again, estimates on the mercury scale don’t explain how unbearable that kind of climate might be. The humidity in the wet-bulb heat is so high that sweat cannot evaporate and cools our body. As of now, most parts of India experience maximum wet-bulb heat of 25-30°C. Without the natural thermostat of the sweat glands that provide relief, humans are typically unable to withstand 35°C for more than six hours. Meanwhile, those who live along the beaches may be facing rising water levels. Even if governments deliver on their carbon reduction promises, global sea levels are expected to rise 44–76 cm this century as polar ice melts, although early cuts could limit this to 28–55 cm. Here too, what we imagine will be only a deceptive version of the real threat. These are all guesses, with many input variables that may or may not behave as expected. Still, allowing for gaps, all climate modeling points to a bleak future. For our species, food farming may be difficult (rice and maize alerts have been issued for India). For many others, survival itself will be difficult. Many rainforests, coral reefs, wetlands and high-altitude ecosystems look far from near extinction.
For those whose hopes are pinned on human ingenuity, the IPCC report is arrogantly depressing. Global efforts to adapt to climate change are falling short of its pace. Thus, stopping and reversing emissions is the only way out. Despite the increase in steps from last year’s COP-26 summit, the global response needs a quantum leap. Otherwise, radical ideas like ‘solar geo-engineering’ would probably gain appeal.
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