A measured response: on the Omicron threat

The threat posed by Omicron is small and it will take weeks for a more comprehensive understanding to emerge, but what is clearly known is that this latest version of the coronavirus is extremely contagious. About 50 countries have now reported its presence within their borders, but information on its effects is available only from South Africa. A preliminary analysis of patients in the Tshwane district in South Africa’s Gauteng province, which has been the global epicenter of the Omicron-led fourth wave, shows that despite its transmissibility, Omicron is less lethal than other strains that have hit the country’s borders. The last three have led. Wave’s. When 166 new admissions were analysed, there were 10 deaths in the last two weeks, accounting for 6.6% of the 166 admissions. By comparison, the death rate in previous waves ranged between 17%-23%. The major caveat, as the scientists part of the South African Medical Research Council point out, is that the pattern may change rapidly over the next two weeks as it takes about a month for the infection to reveal the worst-case outcome of death, And so the current figures for two weeks are insufficient. Scientists say the trend of hospitalization is also encouraging.

Finally, the third part is that a significant number of people in need of intensive care had not been vaccinated. Of the 38 adults in the COVID wards, six were vaccinated, 24 were not vaccinated and eight had unknown immunization status. Eight out of nine patients with COVID pneumonia have not been vaccinated. Therefore, the prevailing wisdom is that despite being highly infectious, vaccination – it is not clear whether vaccination was done in full or in part in the wards – protected significantly against disease and death. But vaccination trends in South Africa are not encouraging. Only about 30% of the country’s people have received a single dose and only 25% have been fully vaccinated. Reports have suggested that the South African government actually had to delay vaccination because it claimed it had “too much stock”, underlining that the problem of vaccine hesitancy or easy access to large sections of the population is a problem. The challenge was. As seen in previous waves, the first line of defense – or neutralizing antibodies produced as a result of a prior infection or vaccination – was significantly reduced when faced with beta or delta variants. The same appears to be the case with Omicron, but the second line of defense, or cellular immunity, remains effective from existing evidence. Therefore, the lesson for the world continues is that instead of focusing on Omicron’s novelty, it is wise to double down on efforts to fully vaccinate people and then consider an evidence-based booster or subsequent dose.