At the end of this week, Narendra Modi will complete his ninth year in office as the Prime Minister. There will be general elections next year, and the question of whether he will be able to secure a majority for his party for a third consecutive term will undoubtedly arise. Apart from Jawaharlal Nehru, no one has been able to do such a feat.
A decade ago, Manmohan Singh was the PM and he was in his tenth year in office. Singh to “Mr. clear”, but allegations of corruption by his cabinet colleagues were everywhere. Under those circumstances, the BJP declared Modi as its prime ministerial face at its Goa convention. The decision caused embarrassment to Advani’s supporters, but the time was not in his favor.
Ignoring internal party bickering, Modi proceeded on a marathon tour of the country. He has maintained his popularity despite ups and downs since then. So far no Prime Minister has been able to maintain such ‘continuous’ popularity. You can remember Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi. But remember, Nehru had the aura of being India’s first prime minister. In Indira’s case, the resounding victory of the 1971 war had given a big boost to the image. Times, technology and expectations have changed dramatically. Despite all this, Modi has retained his charm.
The recent Karnataka assembly elections are an example of this. The BJP put all its weight on the wheel, but the results were not favourable. Why? It was difficult to remove the stigma of ‘40% government’. The Congress intensified its politics regarding this allegation and did not let it subside. Earlier also an attempt was made to implicate Modi in the same way. During the last general election, the slogan Chowkidar Chor Hai was used, however, it proved ineffective. This time an attempt is being made to raise the political head on the Adani issue.
Modi’s distinctive communication style complements this approach. He has been successful in establishing direct communication with the common man through Mann Ki Baat and other mediums.
Modi’s success is the result of this simple and well-thought-out approach, which stresses that the work of the government must reach everyone. Through MNREGA and other welfare programs, the Manmohan Singh government was able to lift approximately 270 million Indians out of poverty. The Direct Benefit Transfer scheme was also started during his tenure, but he could not take advantage of it.
Compare this with Modi’s current tenure. Many people today are struggling with covid, unemployment, inflation and other such problems, yet Modi’s image is intact. Apart from giving direct benefits to farmers, the policy of providing free food grains to 820 million people and other welfare initiatives has made a significant difference to them. Through these programmes, Modi has made an effective effort to destroy the tendency of winning elections on the basis of caste equations.
Along with the development of Hindu holy places, indirect messages are also being conveyed to the majority through various festivals. With his vigorous massage, social welfare programs and careful use of religion, Modi has created a new political myth.
The question now is whether, like in Himachal and Karnataka, if the BJP does not win the required number of seats in five other states where assembly elections will be held later this year, will it have an impact on the general elections? Last time, BJP had suffered disappointment in all these states, but Modi had won a landslide victory in the Lok Sabha elections in the same states. In our ever-evolving democracy, people understand that assembly and Lok Sabha elections are separate, and they have no difficulty in choosing two different parties or individuals for different duties.
Despite this, opposition unity will get strength in the coming days. Nitish Kumar has indicated a big mobilization of the opposition in Patna. Sharad Pawar has reaffirmed his commitment to unity, and Mamata Banerjee is sending mixed signals. This reminds us of Vishwanath Pratap Singh’s aphorism. Realizing that complete opposition unity was unlikely, Singh urged fielding only one candidate against the ruling party in each constituency. Nitish Kumar is also trying this. He started his campaign after meeting Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. Does he have the full support of the Congress? Even if the Congress supports it wholeheartedly, the politically mature CM of Bihar has many political puzzles to solve. There are many contradictions in the anti-BJP camp.
If Nitish succeeds, the BJP will certainly face new challenges, but Modi has risen to the occasion by fighting against the odds and winning. He’s always been good at ‘rebranding’ himself. His upcoming litmus test will be the next general election.
Shashi Shekhar is the editor-in-chief of Hindustan. Thoughts are personal.
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