The world’s air carriers are preparing their cabins for take-off. After 18 months in which the planes were grounded in desert boneyards, converted into makeshift medical-supply freighters, and even flown on diminishing return hops to maintain their pilots’ certification The machinery of the global aviation industry is slowly coming back to life.
Emirates, the largest carrier of international traffic, plans to employ 6,000 people in the coming six months and will restore 70% of its pre-pandemic capacity by the end of the year. London’s Heathrow Airport on Tuesday reported its first quarter of passenger growth since 2019. Sales from the business of General Electric, which manufactures and services jet engines, climbed 9.7% in the September quarter. On a tracker of more than 100,000 daily flights maintained by FlightRadar24, a data provider, last week the weekly average flight departures jumped ahead of the same period in pre-Covid 2019 shortly before.
It’s hard to believe, but the moment airlines have been waiting for has finally arrived. The European Union opened itself largely to vaccinated travelers last month, as did Canada and Turkey; India will begin a limited reopening after October 15, and Thailand on November 1. The biggest changes were announced on Monday: Beginning November 8, the US, the largest recipient of inbound tourist dollars and the second largest spender on outbound tourism, will join the club of nations open to mass-vaccinated travelers .
All of this may seem a little premature at a time when half the world’s population still hasn’t been vaccinated – but air travel, like vaccines, is a luxury enjoyed by wealthy countries.
In normal times, more than a third of international passenger air traffic is within China, North America and Europe. China’s domestic market has been mostly open since the first half of last year. Europe’s main restrictions were lifted last month, and North America will follow in November. Add in transatlantic flights and between Europe and the Middle East, where most restrictions for vaccination have also fallen, and we are looking at about 50% of the global total.
This still leaves a huge hole in the global tourism market the size of China. Beijing is the only major national government still committed to a zero-Covid strategy, and it is showing little signs of giving up. Travelers will have to spend up to 21 days in quarantine, which is increasing to more than a month from some parts of the world, such as the United Arab Emirates. Chinese outbound tourists spent about $255 billion in 2019 – the equivalent of about a fifth of all international spending – which is a significant blow.
Similar measures apply in Hong Kong, where the government this week tightened already strict quarantine requirements in hopes that the policy would encourage mainland China to open the border. Flights between Hong Kong and Taipei – which have traditionally competed with Singapore-Kuala Lumpur for the title of the world’s busiest international air route – have dropped to almost zero. Hong Kong recorded just 50 visitors from Taiwan in June, a month typically drawing over 160,000 visitors.
There are conflicting rules in other parts of the Asia region. While Singapore’s aviation hub has largely opened itself up to long-distance travel and has been reported to have lifted most border restrictions with Malaysia, for the most part an area that accounts for about 15% of aviation traffic is closed from New Zealand. Remains north of Japan.
Plus, it’s less of an issue than it may seem. Due to the limited range of aircraft and the difficulty of operating outside the home area, the vast majority of airline revenue is local. Budget airlines that dominate short-haul travel have actually outperformed their pre-pandemic performance of late, with Ryanair holdings 15% since early 2020, India’s InterGlobe Aviation 44% and Mexico’s Contadorado Vuela Cia, OR Volaris, a 77% jump.
Airlines still face huge challenges. Of the 124 carriers tracked by Bloomberg, net debt has risen by more than a third to $402 billion since the end of 2019. Paying that off would require extraordinary operating income, at a time when carriers are having to keep a lid on prices to get passengers back on board. Jet fuel, which accounts for about a quarter of the cost globally, is nearing a seven-year high.
The worst may still lie ahead for the aviation sector, as public and private lenders who have kept the industry afloat for the past two years seek to recover the money they have raised. Still, after a long and lonely pandemic, the home’s welcoming landing lights are finally in sight.
David Fickling is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering commodities, as well as industrial and consumer companies
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