Russia’s invasion of Ukraine “could start at any time” – US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. “American citizens must leave now” – President Joe Biden. “The number of (Russian) troops is increasing, while the warning time is shortening” – NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.
In Kiev, several embassies are advising their citizens to pack their bags and leave as new shipments of military aid – including pallets of US-made Javelin anti-tank missiles – arrive on the tarmac in Ukraine.
But in Moscow, it’s still possible to get late bookings at Swish Cafe Pushkin, although it’s a little harder to get a table at another prime people-watching spot, a stone’s throw from Red Square.
This does not mean that the Ukraine crisis is not front and center in Russia.
French President Emmanuel Macron’s one-on-one meeting with Russian President Putin and the meeting between Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Britain’s foreign minister came amid a flurry of high-level diplomatic visits this week. Defense to Ben Wallace.
But at the glittering disco ball that is Russia’s capital, the geopolitical drama seems like an illusion. Despite talk of an imminent Russian attack – and indisputable evidence that Russia has besieged the Ukrainian border with more than 100,000 battle-ready troops and sent new warships to the Black Sea – Russia is hardly on a war footing, less so. At least as far as public discussion goes.
Take, for example, Russian state media’s coverage of UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss’s meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Thursday. The tone was warm, and sometimes outright trolling.
Russian observers focused on Truss’s sartorial choices (with state television channel Russia 24 noting his fur hat). la rouse) and its unfortunate omission in the location of Rostov and Voronezh Oblasts (they are territories that are part of sovereign Russia, as Truss later clarified in an interview with Russian outlet RBC).
And online, the Russians have highlighted a particularly grim moment: the more than five-hour-long meeting between Putin and Macron.
One of those memes shows the leader of the Chechen Republic, Ramzan Kadyrov, dancing at a giant table. It was a reminder that Putin still has domestic headaches to worry about, as regional leaders are clearly taking the law into their own hands – not just in his home region, but beyond.
In a conference call with reporters, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected the idea that Kadyrov was out of control, but he declined to provide a readout of a meeting between Putin and Kadyrov, and a reporter’s question. Rejected whether the Kremlin is afraid of Kadyrov.
“Why should Putin be afraid of the head of the Russian field?” Peskov said.
But the Kremlin cares about ratings, and Putin should certainly be mindful of the fact that a major war with Ukraine – with potentially mass casualties, broadcast to the world – will lead to Russia’s 2014 Crimea annexation. Unlike May, Unpopular, which was sharp, relatively bloodthirsty and gave a major boost to the ratings of the Russian president.
Defining Putin’s intentions in Ukraine is an impossible task, and anyone who claims to know is an idiot. But if the conflict is averted, can public opinion be a factor?
Andrei Kolesnikov of Carnegie Moscow Center suggested so in a conversation with CNN’s Kim Brunhuber.
“A real war can be unpopular. Until now, military campaigns were quite popular and Putin’s approval ratings were based on support after military campaigns [that were] Successful, brief, victorious, like Crimea, which provoked a wave of patriotism. ,
“But right now we are talking about a bloody war that will not subside, which will not be without victims, as Putin took over Crimea. And that’s another story,” Kolesnikov said.
Whether that sad story unfolds is anyone’s guess but that of Putin.