New Delhi: With less than a month left for polling in Karnataka, both the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) have dubbed each other the ‘B-team’ of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which is already full of election results. Sort of settled. Its ticket distribution strategy. Against this backdrop, ThePrint takes a look at how these three mainstays of Karnataka politics have fared against each other in a direct contest.
An analysis by ThePrint shows that between 2004 and 2018, half of the 224 assembly seats in Karnataka saw a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress – with the BJP maintaining a strike rate of 60 per cent in these seats.
Similarly, in the seats that have seen a direct contest between the Congress and the JD(S) since 2004, the HD Deve Gowda-led party has maintained a strike rate of 52 per cent.
On how the dynamics between these three parties have evolved over the years, political analysts point out that 2004 was a “transition election” when the primary contest shifted from Congress versus JD(S) to Congress versus BJP. The election that year concluded with a fractured mandate; BJP won 79 seats, Congress 65 and JD(S) 58 seats.
Significantly, no party has crossed the majority mark of 123 seats on its own in Karnataka since 2004. The Congress came closest to it in 2013, when it won 122 seats.
writing for monocontrol Earlier this month, political analyst Sanjay Kumar pointed out that the JD(S) has a “good presence” only in the southern Karnataka region, while the Congress votes are “widely spread” across the state.
“Though it has caused damage to the Congress, it can have a positive effect as well,” he said. A slight swing of votes (four per cent) in favor of the Congress away from the BJP and JD(S) could give the Congress party a majority in 2023,” wrote Kumar, who is also a professor at Delhi’s Center for Political Science. Study of Developing Societies (CSDS).
As a result of this gap, Karnataka sees a direct BJP-Congress and JD(S)-Congress contest.
The last four assembly elections – 2004, 2008, 2013 and 2018 – saw direct contests between the three parties on at least 754 of the total 896 seats. The margin of victory was less than 5,000 votes in 175, or about a quarter of all 754 seats.
Of these 754 seats, the BJP has a strike rate of 55 per cent in a direct contest with the JD(S). It is also important to note that the two parties were in a direct contest for only 10 per cent of the 754 seats.
Two-sided contest between BJP vs Congress
In the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections, there was a direct fight between the Congress and the BJP on 142 seats. While Congress candidates were runners-up in 85 of the 104 seats won by the BJP that year, BJP candidates were runners-up in 57 of the 78 seats in which the Congress emerged victorious.
Of these 142 seats, the victory margin in 20 seats was less than 5,000 votes, of which 15 were in Congress’s account.
Sandeep Shastri, a political scientist and pro-vice-chancellor of Bangalore’s Jain University, told ThePrint that this trend of a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP in Karnataka began in 2004 when the JD(S) was relegated to third place in the assembly. Voting took place that year.
Shastri said, “Since 1999, the JD(S) has given the main race to the Congress and the BJP.”
In 2004, there was a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP on 105 seats. The number was 144 in 2008 and 109 in 2013 (BJP+KJP).
In 2013, the BJP suffered a major setback when BS Yeddyurappa decided to part ways with the BJP and form his own party, the Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP). While the KJP was able to win only six of the 204 seats it contested that year, its candidates emerged as runners-up in 35 seats.
The BJP and the Congress were in a direct fight on 77 seats that year, while the KJP and the Congress were in a direct fight on 32 seats, totaling 109.
It is in this context that a direct contest between the two national parties takes a central place in the politics of Karnataka. An analysis by ThePrint shows that the seats where it is in a direct contest with the Congress constitute a significant portion of the BJP’s total tally in the Karnataka assembly elections.
In three of the last four assembly elections, more than 80 per cent of the seats that contributed to the BJP’s account were those in which it was in a direct contest with the Congress. The only exception was 2013 when the number of such seats fell to 67 per cent and the Congress came to power with 122 seats – one short of the majority mark.
Meanwhile, in 2018, the Congress had 75 per cent seats in which it was in direct competition with the BJP. In the 2013, 2008 and 2004 assembly elections, this number was 65 per cent.
In 2004, 2008 and 2018, when the BJP emerged as the single largest party, the party had a strike rate of 60 per cent in a direct contest with the Congress. The only exception was the 2013 assembly elections when the Congress, which emerged as the single largest party, had a strike rate of 65 per cent in seats where it was in direct competition with the BJP.
“The number of seats where JD(S) is number two is very less. Since the JD(S) is in the frame on very few seats, the main contest is essentially between the Congress and the BJP. That’s why what you say is true to a large extent for BJP, it will also be true for Congress.
BJP Vs JD(S) Two Sided Fight
In 2018, the BJP and JD(S) were locked in 26 seats – less than the number in 2013, 2008 and 2004. Of the 26 seats, the BJP was victorious and the JD(S) was the runner-up – winning 17 (65 per cent) seats, while the JD(S) was the winner and the BJP was the runner-up in nine (35 per cent) seats.
The BJP, which has a strong presence in northern and central Karnataka, is trying to make inroads in the state’s southern districts – considered JD(S) strongholds. Union Home Minister Amit Shah launched the party’s campaign on December 30 last year in Mandya in southern Karnataka.
Of the 46 seats in Vokkaliga-dominated southern Karnataka, the JD(S) won 25 and the BJP 11 – up from three in 2013 – in the 2018 elections.
An analysis of electoral data by ThePrint also shows that in the last four assembly elections, the BJP has improved its strike rate against its former ally JD(S) – from 31.25 per cent in 2004 to 65 per cent in 2018.
The JD(S), on the other hand, won 25 per cent of all seats in a direct contest with the BJP in 2018. For the JD(S), the seats in which it had a direct contest with the BJP made up 25 per cent of its tally that year, compared to the BJP’s 16 per cent.
Experts believe that the HD Deve Gowda-led party’s main strength lies in the old Mysore region in southern Karnataka. In the last 20 years, JD(S)’s vote share has remained stable at 19-21 per cent.
This has also been taken into account, along with the BJP’s presence in northern and coastal Karnataka, which is why the ruling party and JD(S) are contesting fewer seats than a direct Congress-BJP contest.
Direct fight between Congress vs JD(S)
In the 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections, there was a direct contest between the Congress and the JD(S) on 43 seats. They then forged a post-poll alliance to prevent the BJP from coming to power, with HD Kumaraswamy as chief minister.
In that election, the JD(S) won 25 seats, pitting its candidates in direct competition against the Congress – which had a strike rate of 60 per cent.
As is the case with seats in which the BJP and the Congress are in direct contest, the JD(S) wins two-thirds (65-72 percent) of all seats in which it is in direct contest. Congress. For the Congress, this number is less than a third (27-35 per cent).
However, the strike rate of both the parties has not been the same in the head-to-head contest. In 2008 and 2013, the Congress’ strike rate against the JD(S) was 60 per cent – similar to the JD(S)’s strike rate against the Congress in the 2004 and 2018 assembly elections.
“What has happened because of the 2019 Lok Sabha elections is that the BJP has made inroads in old Mysore, basically Janata Dal (S) areas. The Congress was not affected as much as the Janata Dal was,” says Shastri.
“As a result, this time, I don’t think you will have an assembly where no party has a majority. I think the electorate is very clear that an assembly without a majority leads to political instability. I would not be surprised if the electorate makes a decisive choice in favor of one of the two main players.
(Editing by Amritansh Arora)