A KPMG survey of auto industry executives found they believe electric vehicle sales will be 52% by 2030 in the United States, China and Japan, with lower percentages for Western Europe, Brazil and India.
see photosAs for China, some auto industry executives expect EV sales to account for less than 20% of the market by 2030
Auto industry executives expect electric vehicles to make up half of new vehicle sales in the United States and China by 2030, according to a new survey by accounting and consulting firm KPMG, and can do so without receiving government subsidies.
But combustion vehicles, including hybrids, are expected to retain a significant share of most major vehicle markets in the coming years, according to KPMG’s latest annual survey of 1,000 auto industry executives.
The speed at which automakers can drive combustion engines and emissions of carbon dioxide is a critical issue for the global auto industry. A group of automakers and countries signed a statement earlier this month calling for phasing out combustion vehicles globally by 2040 and in wealthy countries by 2035.
But the world’s two biggest automakers by sales, Volkswagen AG and Toyota Motor Corp, and the world’s three biggest auto-buying countries – China, the United States and Germany – did not sign up.
Electric vehicle sales around the world have so far been fueled by government subsidies.
A KPMG survey of auto industry executives found they believe electric vehicle sales will be 52% by 2030 in the United States, China and Japan, with lower percentages for Western Europe, Brazil and India. But behind those overall forecasts, industry executives have widely differing views.
As for China, some auto industry executives expect EV sales to account for less than 20% of the market by 2030, while others believe the world’s largest market could be 80% electric by then.
Electric vehicle sales around the world have so far been fueled by government subsidies. But 77% of KPMG’s survey respondents said electric vehicles could be mass adopted within ten years without government support as the cost of batteries becomes comparable to that of petroleum-fueled engines. However, 91% of auto executives said they support government subsidies.
The comprehensive survey also found that 75% of executives surveyed expect their companies to sell off “non-core” assets in the coming years as they reevaluate which business lines will be viable as more new vehicle battery- Will move to electric technology.
“There’s going to be a lot of M&A,” said Gary Silberg, KPMG’s global leader of automotive practice.
Despite the supply-chain and pandemic-related disruptions of the past year, nearly 53% of executives surveyed said they believe the industry can achieve profitable growth over the next five years.
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The survey found that the most enthusiastic officials were in the United States and China, with the most pessimistic in France.
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