Backwater Blues of West Asia

Already, the Arab–Israeli conflict (particularly the signing of the Abraham Accords), the Lebanese explosion and the crisis in Tunisia, among other issues, has seen the region look very different to the world in recent decades than it has known in recent decades. . Conventional wisdom about and within the region is no longer true.

The disastrous US invasion and occupation of Iraq in 2003 made the American public wary of military intervention and nation-building, and the withdrawal from Afghanistan was the ultimate expression of this disillusionment. American voters and subsequent US administrations have concluded that their country is not particularly adept at promoting democracy or building institutions outside its borders. And as America’s shale boom effectively ended its reliance on oil from West Asia, the US has taken less interest in countries that are unwilling or unable to establish more productive, inclusive political and economic systems.

Despair can also be traced to large areas of the Arab world. Arabs have become disenchanted with US policy, amid America’s misguided intervention in Iraq, Libya and Syria, and its continued unconditional support for Israel despite that country’s long occupation of Palestinian territory. The result is that America and the Arab world have never been separate.

The Arab uprising a decade ago called for the introduction of sustained political and economic reforms. But that agenda struggled to get off the ground and is now under tremendous pressure in the country where it did. Until recently, Tunisia stood as a model of political diversity, peaceful transfer of power and gender equality. Yet, it is now being subjected to the dictatorial impulses of an elected president who enjoys widespread popular support. Similarly, Lebanon, long an exponent of cultural diversity in the region, is now in near collapse, as its corrupt political elite refuse to put the country’s interests ahead of their own.

In the case of Tunisia, it remains to be seen whether the recent instability is an anomaly that can be corrected, or instead heralds a renewal of the pre-2011 status quo. And many Arabs are wondering whether Lebanon’s political and economic breakdown will put an end to its commitment to cultural diversity, or whether the Lebanese people will once again manage to preserve a model that has brought much talent and power to the rest of the region. Hope has been exported.

Last year also brought major developments on the Arab-Israeli front. Two political leaders who had earlier wreaked havoc on the peace process have left the spot. US President Donald Trump, whose “deal of the century” skewed entirely toward Israel’s interests at the expense of the Palestinians, was sent packing (and he took his “peace plan” with him). And a similar fate befell Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who openly opposed any withdrawal from the occupied territories to allow the establishment of a viable Palestinian state.

But Israel now has a new government led by Naftali Bennett, whose position on that particular issue is far more extreme than that of its predecessor.

Beyond these election results, 2021 will most likely be remembered for conflicts between the Israeli military and Palestinians in Jerusalem’s Sheikh Jarrah and Sylvan districts, and then in Gaza. More than at any other time in the conflict’s history, the international community has begun to view these episodes through the lens of human rights, with Israel having less tolerance for violations.

In 2018, Israel enacted a nation-state law that formally granted second-class status to its Palestinian citizens. Now, three major reports in the past year have drawn heavy criticism of Israel’s separate and unequal treatment of Palestinians, both Israeli citizens and occupiers. Israeli human rights organization B’Tselem, the highly respected Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Human Rights Watch have all come out and argued (to varying degrees) that Israel has established a legal system similar to apartheid.

The “A-word” was considered taboo until a few years ago. But with Israeli leaders openly declaring their opposition to a Palestinian state, the political dynamics have changed. Israel is apparently committed to maintaining the longest military occupation in modern history; But its alleged human rights violations have reached such a level that few in the international community can continue to justify it.

The Abrahamic Accords, Israel’s bilateral agreement establishing diplomatic relations with four Arab countries (the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco) in late 2020, did nothing for the peace process. Instead, they only allowed signatory governments to gain political and economic benefits from the US. The Trump administration hoped that the agreements would serve as a counterweight to Iran, which now has a new radical president. But they have had no effect on the Biden administration’s resolve to renew the Iran nuclear deal, nor have they had a softer effect on Israel’s position than the Palestinians.

Saudi Arabia, despite not participating in such agreements, appears to be agreeing behind the scenes, in an effort to build an Arab-Israeli alliance against Iranian influence in the region. The state has also taken unprecedented economic and social liberalization measures while retaining its political system so far.

In short, while the sector is undergoing rapid transformation, much remains the same. Most Arab leaders refuse to believe that the road to stability and prosperity is paved with strong institutions, respect for diversity, inclusive economic systems and legal equality for all citizens. Instead, they are cracking down on dissent and cementing their position.

Looking ahead, the Arab-Israeli conflict appears to be entering a new phase. Palestinians, especially those of the younger generation, no longer believe that a two-state solution is possible, and are thus refocusing their struggle on equal rights and possibly a one-state democratic outcome.

Beyond that conflict, however, the international community’s interest in the region will continue to decline. If Arab states have any real hope of achieving peace, stability and prosperity, they must embark on a credible process of political and economic reform. And they have to do it at home. ©2021/Project Syndicate (www.project-syndicate.org)

Marwan Muasher is a former Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister of Jordan.