Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu is eyeing a return to power. (file)
Jerusalem:
Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu is eyeing a return to power when the country holds its fifth election in four years on Tuesday, a prospect potentially fueled by the rise of the extreme-right.
The 73-year-old right-wing and security hawk, the longest-serving leader in Israel’s history, is campaigning from the opposition for the first time in years.
He is up against centrist caretaker Prime Minister Yair Lapid, who last year turned an eight-party coalition into a coalition that managed to oust Mr Netanyahu from power.
Mr Lapid sailed into the November 1 election just days after a diplomatic breakthrough – finalizing a historic maritime boundary agreement with enemy Lebanon that unlocks offshore gas wealth for both sides.
Meanwhile, Mr Netanyahu is hoping that his record 15 years in power can give voters confidence that he has the experience needed to lead the country despite an ongoing corruption trial.
Netanyahu’s Likud is emerging as the largest party in the Knesset parliament in the polls – but in a coalition-dominated political system, his path to the premiership is not certain.
While the counting of ballots is still underway, the two leaders are likely to hold intense talks with smaller parties as they try to reach the 61 seats needed for a parliamentary majority.
For Mr. Netanyahu it means rekindling his long-standing ties with the ultra-conservative, while he has also included the ultra-right coalition of Itamar Ben-Gwir and Bezel Smotrich.
The religious Zionism coalition of the two is rising in the polls and could take third place, more than double its current six seats.
Support for the ultra-right could serve as Netanyahu’s ticket to high office, a move that will likely come in return for the handing over of vital powers to Ben-Gavir.
‘Trust crisis’
With Lapid’s Yes Atid party behind Likud in the polls, one of his aides said he wanted to “make sure Netanyahu does not get these 61 (seats) with his allies”.
Such a strategy is meant to both persuade the Israelis to move away from the Likud leader and ensure that their potential allies win the vote.
Under Israel’s electoral system, parties must win at least four seats to make it to parliament.
“Lapid is trying to say that he is the only one who can bring together anti-Netanyahu members of the Knesset,” said Gail Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
“He has to make sure his potential partners are getting above the threshold,” she said.
Several parties are on the four-seat threshold, notably all three Arab-led groups that have previously opposed Mr. Netanyahu.
Mansoor Abbas, the leader of Ram, which became the first Arab party to join the ruling coalition last year, told AFP there was a “crisis of trust with the Arab public”.
The Arab-Israeli population is about 20 percent and if their turnout falls as expected, Netanyahu’s faction could win more seats.
Netanyahu’s future
Despite voters being “absolutely tired” according to veteran pollster Dahlia Schindlin, overall Israeli turnout is expected to remain relatively high.
Like the last four elections held since April 2019, the political crisis will not end from election day.
Coalition talks can take weeks and if they fail, it is likely that voters will go to re-election soon.
Ms Schindlin said voters “have not changed their views significantly over the past few cycles”, but that the positions of their leaders may change.
“What is different is the size of the parties and probably the decisions of the party leaders who will have to decide which alliance to go with,” he said.
“That varies from election to election, it may change this time as well.”
The results of this latest vote could have wide-ranging consequences for Mr Netanyahu who is fighting corruption charges.
Securing the premier could pave the way for Mr Netanyahu to gain immunity from prosecution, with support for religious Zionism, which has vowed to overhaul the justice system.
If he remains in opposition, he could “negotiate a plea deal”, according to Ms Talshir.
After releasing a memoir this month, he said, Mr Netanyahu is “preparing the ground for his departure” after decades on the political stage.
(Except for the title, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)