There is much chaos on the horizon as the West, especially the US, envisions a new regime in Iran, Russia and China.
There is much chaos on the horizon as the West, especially the US, envisions a new regime in Iran, Russia and China.
There are three countries in which the West in general and the US in particular would like to see regime change: Iran, Russia and China. Iran is the most promising; China, at least.
Once the Ayatollah took over Iran in 1979, he demanded the US hand over the Shah, where he had taken refuge. The US refused and Islamic students captured the US embassy in Tehran, holding the diplomats hostage for 444 days. Since then, relations between Washington and Tehran have been extremely friendly. A superpower, humiliated, should not rest until the regime is toppled. During the eight-year long Iran-Iraq War, the Americans were clearly on the side of Iraq, which gave Iranians more reason to hate America.
Iran’s nuclear program has been the subject of long talks between the US and Iran. As long as the Shah was in power, the US had no objection to Iran having nuclear weapons; In fact, he established several nuclear plants in Iran. Once the mullahs announced their determination to drive Israel out to sea, the Americans had no choice but to pressure Iran to abandon its nuclear program and impose tough economic sanctions against it. There were opportunities to reach an agreement on the issue of this celebration, but they were not seized. Mr. Trump denounces the nuclear deal signed by President Obama; He also had little choice in the face of strong Israeli opposition to any deal with Iran.
The US is seeing the current wave of protests in Iran, which has already been going on for several weeks, as an opportunity to bring down the regime. Even the Iranian oil industry has joined the protests. It is not as far-fetched as it might seem. Mullahs certainly remember how in 1953 the CIA brought down the democratically elected Prime Minister Mossadegh, who nationalized the Iranian oil industry. Tehran alleged that the US was behind the protests following the death of an Iranian woman in police custody for refusing to wear the hijab. Can anyone completely disprove his claim? The Tehran regime is using brute force to bring the situation under control. However, the opposition, combined with the dire economic situation, could threaten the very existence of the regime. Mullahs should not underestimate the ability of the CIA to turn protests into civil war, or to maintain the power of protesters. Even a powerful figure like Hosni Mubarak in Egypt had to step down despite military and intelligence control. Iran would do well to reach an agreement on the nuclear issue as soon as possible.
As for Russia, President Biden publicly calls for Mr Putin’s removal, “For God’s sake, that man, (namely President Putin,) cannot stay in power,” he said in Warsaw in March. Is Putin’s war on Ukraine a little open to regime change in the Kremlin? The war so far has been very bad for Mr. Putin. They do not care about their isolation at the international level, but domestic discontent, which is on the rise, raises uncomfortable questions for them. He too is facing humiliation and has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons. Sanctions towards them by depriving the West of energy supplies are unlikely to change behavior, just as Western sanctions have not worked in suing Putin for peace. However, Mr. Gorbachev also had to pull out of Afghanistan; His country could no longer afford to live in Afghanistan and the families of the martyred soldiers protested almost unbearably. Mr. Putin is likely to face a similar situation at some point.
Mr Biden is in no hurry. America is not interested in a ceasefire. War doesn’t cost them anything. The arms industry is booming and American blood is not being shed. As and when Ukraine begins to rebuild itself, most US companies will cut all contracts.
{A thought about Ukraine. While the big powers are talking about nuclear war and Armageddon irresponsibly, the rest of the world is suffering gravely, especially the developing countries. They should not sit with folded hands. One of them, such as India, alone or with like-minded partners, should present a resolution to the Security Council calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities in situ, followed by intense diplomacy with all sides by the Secretary-General. To be put To find the face saving formula that can satisfy or dissatisfy everyone equally. It may get a positive response from some and negative from others. The massive UN membership would welcome this initiative. It can be vetoed, but the exercise will be worthwhile in generating a strong opinion against the war.}
China is a different story. Chinese Communist Party, With its 90 million members, it is firmly, though perhaps not quite, firmly rooted. Its economy is the second largest in the world. Its army, getting more powerful day by day, is well disciplined; At least it appears so. The CCP has a remarkable achievement in reducing poverty and improving the standard of living of the people. As long as the party can increase prosperity, it is safe. Hence, the economic war with China that Mr. Trump started and Mr. Biden is continuing and ratcheting up almost every week.
There have been reports of some ruckus in the media, among senior CCP officials; No one knows how true it is. There have been protests against the COVID lockdown And also against the Supreme Leader. Overall, China offers the least potential for regime change, but the US will not give up on the target. One of Mr Biden’s successors, though ousted, could succeed.
Chinmay R. Gharekhan is the former Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations