Beyond the Numbers: On Rajya Sabha Elections

Elections for 57 Rajya Sabha seats in the latest round Which concluded on June 10, provides remarkable clues about the political winds in several states. Forty-one seats were single candidates who were elected unopposed from 11 states, while four states were contested for 16 – Haryana, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Rajasthan – were incidental, and accompanied by allegations of horse-trading, sabotage and abuse of power by central and state functionaries. The BJP’s continued emphasis on backward classes and weaker sections was evident in the selection of its candidates – reflected in at least half of the 22 new members brought in by the party to the Rajya Sabha. The three Muslim BJP MPs who expired in July were not re-nominated, and the ruling party will no longer have a single Member of Parliament from the community. The Congress, on the other hand, remained silent to the demand for increased representation by weaker sections – eight of its 10 candidates were from major communities. The party apparently missed the first opportunity to demonstrate that the Udaipur Declaration, which promised reforms in the party like the ‘one family, one person’ principle in ticket allocation, was indeed a serious attempt.

The BJP’s maneuvering ability yielded good results in Maharashtra and Haryana, but in Rajasthan it had little to eat by losing an MLA to the Congress camp. In Karnataka, elections saw the Congress distance itself from the JD(S), trying to emerge as the sole opposition to the ruling BJP ahead of the assembly elections next year. The new situation removes the possibility of an alliance, if not impossible. The BJP’s show of strength in Maharashtra has upset the calculations of the ruling tripartite Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), and has threatened its government. In 2019, the strength of the MVA, which included the Shiv Sena, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress as well as some independents and smaller parties, stood at 169, comfortably above the halfway mark of 145. Two and a half years later, the BJP got 123 votes in the Rajya Sabha elections, while the MVA got 161 votes. Two NCP MLAs were in jail and could not vote, one Shiv Sena vote was declared invalid; A month ago, a Shiv Sena MLA had died. Though there is no immediate threat to the MVA government, a turnaround of at least 10 votes to the BJP has brought the BJP closer to the majority mark amid murmurs of discontent within the three parties. In the coming days, there may be fresh discussion of welcoming ‘disgruntled’ and ‘disgruntled’ MLAs. Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot and Chhattisgarh CM Bhupesh Baghel have consolidated their positions within the Congress amid demands for an exit. In Haryana, the loss of a winnable seat due to internal strife reflects the Congress high command’s inability to enforce discipline.