Big victory for Xi, a step back for China

And yet, under Xi’s leadership, China has managed its internal security challenges well. For example, despite international outcry over human rights violations of Muslim ethnic groups in Xinjiang, the situation appears to be largely under control. The so-called terrorist threat from Uyghur separatists has increased, and if it exists, the province is kept under control, sometimes under injunction to help powers in ‘all-weather friend’ Pakistan along with a rigorous surveillance system. goes. Minimizing potential harm to Chinese interests. Another manifestation is Beijing’s ability to repeatedly impose a province-wide lockdown in Xinjiang in the wake of the Covid outbreak, including one currently.

Similarly, the party’s concerns about Hong Kong are particularly surprising. For all intents and purposes, the Special Administrative Region bowed entirely to Beijing’s will with its implementation of China’s national security law and resulted in a general moment of fear over the city’s leading democracy activists as well as the rest of the population. is also. ,

With regard to Taiwan, China’s aggressive military exercises in the Taiwan Strait, in response to US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s August visit to the island nation, offered a preview of what was to come in the 20th Congress report.

Indeed, the difference between the announcements on Taiwan in the 2017 and 2022 Party Congress reports is notable.

While the expression “blood is thicker than water” occurs in both reports, “blood ties” is referred to earlier. One way to explain this is to emphasize the cultural and social aspects of Sino-Taiwan relations. However, given that the CPC has refused to relinquish the use of force in unifying the island – specifically highlighted by Xi in the 20th Congressional Report – “blood” may take on a different meaning. Equally noteworthy is the fact that the specific expression “the resolution of the Taiwan question”, which occurred only once in the 19th Party Congress report, appears four times at the latest. If the attempt to isolate “some separatists seeking Taiwan independence” from the apparently large mass of “our Taiwan compatriots” is meant to soften the blow, then the reference to “external interference by outside forces” in the same sentence is also. The latest report as another one to “gross provocations of external interference in Taiwan affairs” only reinforces a tone of threat and irreversibility.

As far as the CPC is concerned, “testing” will “exist for a long time to come” not only in “governance, reform and opening up the market economy”, but also in the “external environment”. That said, while the 19th Party Congress report expressed a degree of confidence in China’s ability to manage the international environment, the 20th Congress report airs a country with greater siege from the outside world. For example, consider statements such as “external attempts to blackmail, prevent, blockade, and exert maximum pressure on China” or “external efforts to suppress and control China may escalate at any time”.

A China ruled by a political party that has such a strong sense of skepticism about the outside world and which sees external threats around every corner, would by design or accident create an environment where such threats would flourish. The 20th Party Congress of the Communist Party of China may be a moment of personal victory for general secretary Xi, as is widely expected, as he continues for a third term in power. However, for China, the future appears to be more dire.

Jabin T. Jacob is Associate Professor in the Department of International Relations and Governance Studies, Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence, and Assistant Research Fellow at the National Maritime Foundation, India. He tweeted @jabinjacobt.