On Saturday, Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Karnataka for the ninth time this year, holding a grand roadshow in Bengaluru as his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) battles anti-incumbency. It is no surprise that Modi is putting so much of his political capital at stake. The BJP is facing an uphill electoral battle in the state which could also impact other state elections due this year as we move towards the next general elections. No chief minister has retained power in Karnataka since Ramakrishna Hegde in 1985. So, the odds may be stacked against the BJP. It pulled off similar odds in Uttar Pradesh, where Yogi Adityanath won a second consecutive term, a first for any party since 1985. But broadly Southern politics is different. It privileges a local caste count over the party’s saffron appeal, and its strained relations with BS Yediyurappa may have weakened its Lingayat support. The Hindu Right’s stir over Muslim students wearing headscarves or burqas in class and the party’s move to cancel quotas for this religious minority could be part of a larger effort to consolidate the majority.
The BJP’s ploy may help divert attention from its state government’s record. In efforts to tarnish it, the Congress has been calling it a “40% commission government”, alleging that it takes money on state contracts. Another loss for the BJP could be a shift to the central-show mode, as in most other states. With a local leadership void after Yediyurappa sought to replace the sway with a sub-campaign focused on Lingayat teachings. The party also faced walkouts amid discontent over the candidature tickets. Though he was CM for barely two years, Basavaraj Bommai’s leadership has also done little to strengthen the party’s chances of re-election. His party projecting him as its next chief minister may be more to avoid a negative signal being sent than confidence in his leadership. With Modi leading the campaign, the BJP hopes local discontent will be overcome by the prime minister’s national appeal. To be sure, the ruling party polled more than half of the state’s votes in the 2019 national elections. Therefore, its bet on Modi’s leadership may actually be its best bet.
However, what is clearly working in the BJP’s favor is a divided opposition, with the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) troubled by internal squabbles and exits. The former was once a major party in the state but is struggling. With the BJP clearly on the back-foot and the JD(S) weakened, the Congress has shot at power in Bengaluru. It has advocated for women’s votes, although the gender ratio of its tickets is as dismal as other parties. Besides, the leadership tussle between former chief minister Siddaramaiah and state unit president DK Shivakumar could also dent its chances. Though seen as the third player, the JD(S) will play a key role in case none of the top two gets a majority in the assembly. Also in the fray are the Aam Aadmi Party and Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, making political predictions even more dangerous in times of change. Given its vote share in 2019, any split in the opposition will help the BJP. And with states like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana going to polls in the next few months, the Karnataka outcome will affect morale on both sides of our basic political divide. The rise of the right wing from here will track how well the BJP’s expansion strategy for the south is working.
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