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Lucknow: NS According to opposition leaders and political analysts, the repeal of controversial agricultural laws may quell some anger among farmers of western Uttar Pradesh, but it is unlikely to turn the tide in favor of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) itself. He says more than agricultural laws, agitated farmers in the region are worried about guaranteed minimum support prices (MSPs), cane arrears, diesel prices and high electricity rates.
However, BJP leaders believe that repeal of the controversial laws will bring Jat voters back to the party.
Western UP is predominantly a peasant area dominated by Jats and Muslims. In the 2017 elections, Jats had voted heavily for the BJP.
Of the 71 assembly seats in 14 districts of western UP, in which Jats play a significant role, the BJP won 51 in 2017. The number rose to 52 after Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) lone MLA Sahendra Singh Ramala joined the BJP. Samajwadi Party (SP) won 16, Congress two while BSP and RLD won one seat each.
This time, the RLD-SP alliance was hoping to make a dent in the BJP’s numbers because of the farmers’ agitation. Speaking to ThePrint, RLD chief Jayant Choudhary said the alliance is unaffected by the repeal of the laws.
“During the last year, many BJP leaders had labeled farmers” protest (perennial demonstrator) and anti nationalist (terrorist). Why would they vote for him now? Even after this decision, they are not very grateful to this government.
“This government has succumbed to public pressure. Till yesterday they were saying that Jats are not farmers. Today they are saying that farmers have benefited. “Yesterday agricultural laws were beneficial, today rollback is beneficial. So overall it is just campaign for election. But the farmers of western Uttar Pradesh are with us and they will continue to support us.
Former UP CM and SP chief Akhilesh Yadav had also cited political angle in repealing the laws. Talking to reporters in Lucknow on Friday, he said that the decision of the central government is completely motivated by the BJP’s fear of losing the UP elections. ,Their heart is not clear, after the election, the bill will be brought again (These people don’t have clean hearts. They will bring back the bill after the elections are over),” he said.
Other SP leaders told ThePrint that the only thing the BJP has achieved with this repeal is that its leaders will face less hostility in the region.
A large section of Jats are with the SP-RLD alliance. They are not going to BJP but it is true that at least now BJP MPs and MLAs can meet the public more freely than before because in many places they were boycotted by the public in Jat land. They were shown black flags at many places,” said Jat leader Harendra Malik, a former Rajya Sabha MP who recently switched from Congress to SP.
He said that agricultural law is not the only agricultural issue in the region.
“Thousands of sugarcane farmers have not got their dues. Western Uttar Pradesh is a sugarcane belt and here parties lose on the issue of sugarcane. “Farmers are also hurt by high electricity bills, and so why would they vote for the BJP? I am sure they will support our alliance.”
An SP source told ThePrint that the party would now focus on other farmer issues. “The party is now focusing on several other local issues such as stray animals, electricity bills, farmer suicides and shortage of urea,” the source said. The party has asked all the local leaders of western UP to make a list of such problems, which will be included in the party’s manifesto.
Read also: The agrarian laws that the Modi government backtracked tell us to rule India with a big majority
BJP hopes repeal will bring electoral relief
The state BJP unit is heaving a sigh of relief, and the repeal of the laws is expected to turn the tide in its favor in western UP.
“It is a good decision for us now. We will assure the farmers of our area that our government is very pro-farmer. The agriculture laws were not bad, but the opposition leaders propagated it like a curse for the farmers,” said the BJP of Baghpat. MLA Yogesh Dhama said, “A section of Jats also got affected because of this kind of messaging. But now PM Modi has snatched the main election issue of the opposition. So I hope most of the farmers will vote for BJP.”
Chandramohan, the state BJP secretary responsible for the party’s activities in western Uttar Pradesh, echoed his views.
He said, ‘This is a welcome step by PM Modi. The farmers who were agitated by agricultural laws will now come back to us,” said Chandramohan. “They are also our people, though opposition parties tried to woo them by creating negative narratives against the BJP. But they were with us at heart and now they will vote for us.”
Another BJP MLA, who did not wish to be named, however admitted that the agricultural laws had alienated a section of Jat farmers.
“It is a big relief for all of us working in the Jat belt. A section of Jat farmers was joining the opposition’s Muslim+Yadav vote bank, but now they will understand our concern and come back to us. “Non Yadav OBCs are with us, Gujjars are with us; So, if a large section of Jats vote for us, we will get a resounding victory here again.”
However, political analysts do not agree with the BJP’s optimism.
“Agriculture laws have been repealed a few months before the assembly elections. Now the opposition will definitely highlight that it is politically motivated to get votes of farmers, especially Jats,” said Professor Kaviraj, a political analyst from UP. “Had the repeal happened earlier, it would have been more favorable to the BJP, but I think it is too late for them now. Apart from these three agriculture laws, farmers are also agitated over other issues like MSP, arrears of sugarcane farmers, urea and stray animals. If you go to a village, you can see every other person talking about it stray animal (stray cows).”
“Besides, a large section of Jats in western UP are now behind the RLD, which has forged an alliance with the SP,” he said. “If you mix Jats, Muslims, Yadavs and some other OBCs, this combination will have an effect on more than 35 per cent votes in western UP.”
On the other hand, Professor Pawan Sharma, a member of the Faculty of Political Science at Meerut University, said that repeal of agricultural laws will not be an election issue.
“The public will vote on issues of development and other local factors. A small section may vote on the issue of nationalism as it is still there among the masses, especially among the youth,” he said. “So it is wrong to analyze repeal of agricultural laws as a ‘game changer’. Earlier, I think agricultural laws were not the only issue. Local issues play a major role in the politics of western Uttar Pradesh.
(Edited by Arun Prashant)
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