Bolsonaro surprisingly strong, forces Brazil runoff

Several polls indicated that left-wing former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was far ahead, with some suggesting he could even win a first round on Sunday and show margins that are close to or more than double digits. went. But Bolsonaro came within just five points from da Silva, who he will face in a high-stakes runoff on 30 October.

Da Silva came close to an outright majority with 48.4% of the vote, followed by Bolsonaro with 43.2% of the vote, according to Brazil’s electoral rights, Nine other candidates split the rest.

“There are still a lot of questions about Bolsonaro’s vote, there’s a lot of talk about an embarrassment vote for Bolsonaro, who said they were going to vote for a third-way candidate… but that’s all in itself.” Doesn’t explain anything, adding older census data could also affect the design of the polls, said Arielton Freres, director of the Curitiba-based Institut Opiniao.

“Lula starts ahead, but it won’t be easy for her,” he said.

The vote was virtually free from the political violence that many feared. The Supreme Court justice, Alexandre de Moraes, who also heads the electoral authority, congratulated Brazil for a “safe, calm, harmonious and peaceful” election that demonstrated its democratic maturity.

Yet tensions are high, as is what is at stake. The election will determine whether the country returns the Left to the top of the world’s fourth-largest democracy or keeps Bolsonaro in office for another term.

read more, Brazil cordoned off democracy on the ropes

His inflammatory speech over the past four years, tests of democratic institutions, handling of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Amazon rainforest’s worst in 15 years has been widely criticized. But he has built a dedicated base by defending conservative values ​​and projecting himself as a defense of the nation from leftist policies, which he says infringe on individual liberties and create economic turmoil.

“I understand that there is a desire for change, but some changes may be worse,” Bolsonaro told reporters after the results were released. Bolsonaro has repeatedly claimed – without citing evidence – that the country’s electronic voting machines are vulnerable to fraud, but did not challenge the result.

Da Silva is credited with creating a comprehensive social welfare program during his 2003–2010 tenure, which helped lift millions in the middle class and saw exports rise amid a boom in global goods. He is also remembered for his party’s involvement in corruption scandals and his own conviction, which was later quashed by the Supreme Court, which ruled that the judges were biased. This freed him from imprisonment and cleared the way for his presidency.

According to analysts, many voters clearly turned to Bolsonaro, who previously favored candidates with little chance of victory. Those Bhi-Rans performed worse than anticipated.

“The people who were originally voting for either Simone Tebate or Ciro Gomes (the third and fourth-place finishers) decided to vote for Bolsonaro at the last minute,” said Nara Pavao, who is a graduate of the Federal University of Pernambuco. I teach Political Science.

The result “leaves a bitter taste for the left, if we consider what the polls were showing.” Rafael Cortez, who oversees political risk at the consultancy Tendencias Consultoria.

Bolsonaro and colleagues have repeatedly cast doubt on the credibility of polluters such as Datafolha, and have instead pointed to the overwhelming turnout at their street rallies.

Bolsonaro wrote on his Twitter profile on Monday: “Many people were taken away by the lies propagated by research institutions. All their predictions were wrong and they are already the biggest losers of this election. We beat that lie. And now we are going to win the election!”

The margin between Bolsonaro and da Silva in the first round was 6.1 million votes. Tebbet and Gomes together garnered 8.5 million votes, and no more than 30 million people participated.

Although Tebate has indicated that she may urge her supporters to support da Silva, neither she or Gomes have yet made a clear statement as to who they will return on October 30.

Speaking after the results, da Silva said he was looking forward to a few more weeks of campaigning and the opportunity to go face-to-face with Bolsonaro and “compare Brazil, which we built during our administration.”

“I always thought that we are going to win these elections. And let me tell you that we are going to win this election. This, for us, is just an extension,” da Silva said.

The positive night of authority extended into the race for governance and congressional seats, particularly for candidates with Bolsonaro’s blessing. His former infrastructure minister won the race to rule So Paulo. An ally, the governor of Rio de Janeiro, completely defeated his opponent to win re-election.

Sergio Moro, the former judge who temporarily jailed da Silva and was Bolsonaro’s former justice minister, defied elections to win a Senate seat.

And Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party will overtake da Silva’s Workers Party to become the largest in the Senate and lower house.

Its winners were Bolsonaro’s former health minister, a general who oversaw the turbulent management of the pandemic, and his former environment minister, who resigned amid investigations into whether he illegally harvested wood in the Amazon. assisted in exports.

“The far-right have shown great resilience in the race for president and state,” said Carlos Melo, a professor of political science at Inspar University in So Paulo.

Bolsonaro told reporters that his party’s performance in Congress could lead to new support ahead of the October 30 vote, as other parties form alliances for support in the runoff.

Brian Winter, vice president of policy at the Society/Council of the Americas, said, “Brazil is far more polarized than many people think, and it will be difficult to govern whoever wins.” I think the next few weeks will be overwhelming. Will put pressure on Brazilian democracy because these two people fight it. Expect an ugly race that will leave a mark.”

This story has been published without modification in text from a wire agency feed.