Can the Republic of Donbass serve as a buffer zone?

the story So Far: The three regions of the former Commonwealth of Independent States, Abkhazia in northwestern Georgia, a separate state Transnistria in Moldova, and South Ossetia in Georgia, are territories with internal but not external sovereignty. One of the solutions to resolve the crisis over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is that the Donbass republics of Donsk and Luhansk follow this model and exist as de facto states.

What are the three para states?

“Places that do not exist” is how the BBC describes regions such as Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria. variously described In fact or para states, these are the territories which have internal sovereignty but no external sovereignty, i.e. they are not Legally are not recognized by the state and the global community. However, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are recognized by Russia and some of its allies such as Syria, Nauru, Nicaragua and Venezuela. However, Transnistria is not recognized as independent even by Russia. But these three regions recognize each other and have their own governments, parliament, armed forces, constitution, flags, anthems etc.

How did these real states come to be?

While South Ossetia and Abkhazia separated from their native state Georgia, Transnistria separated from Moldova. Abkhazia and South Ossetia both enjoyed substantial autonomy during the Soviet period. Tensions erupted in the late 1980s with the rise of Georgian nationalism.

During perestroika, Abkhazia unilaterally declared independence, leading to a 1992–1993 war with Georgia, which it reportedly won with Russian support. In March 1993, the Abkhazian parliament appealed to join the Russian Federation, but to no avail. In 1996, Russia and most of the members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) banned it for unilaterally seceding from Georgia. However, under Russian President Vladimir Putin, Moscow did not implement the ban and withdrew it in 2008 when it recognized Abkhazia as an independent state. In 2008, during the Russo-Georgian War on South Ossetia, Abkhazia successfully invaded and annexed the last areas of Abkhazia that were still under Georgian control. Russia now has an embassy in the capital, Sukhumi. Abkhazia has Russian troops in accordance with the Military Cooperation Agreement of September 2009, and Moscow provides substantial financial support.

However, Abkhazia does not fully comply with Russia’s wishes on policy. For example, it does not allow Russians to buy property for fear of being overwhelmed by Russians. In 2008, Russia signed a bilateral agreement “On Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Support”. However, when Russia wanted a new treaty to promote greater cooperation, Abkhazia insisted on jointly drafting it to preserve its sovereignty and ensured that the word “unification” was dropped from the treaty. was given. Although Abkhazia needs Russia to survive, there isn’t much love for Russia. As Russian expert Sergei Markedonov puts it, Abkhazia cooperates with Russia because of “a recognized need more than a romantic ideal”.

South Ossetians declared independence from Georgia in 1991. This resulted in a war that resulted in Russia arbitrating an armistice, leaving South Ossetia divided. After the Russo-Georgia War in 2008, the rest of the region was annexed, and in 2008 Russia recognized the independence of South Ossetia. South Ossetia is more pro-Russian than Abkhazia. It planned a referendum in favor of reunification with Russia in 2016, but this did not happen due to Russian opposition. In contrast to the Abkhazians who insisted on the removal of the word “unification” in their agreement with Russia, the South Ossetian version retained the term. South Ossetia is much more integrated with Russian state structures than Abkhazia. It also gets a lot of subsidies from Russia.

Often described as a “relic of the Soviet Union”, Transnistria declared independence just as Moldova did shortly after the breakup of the Soviet Union. When Moldovan troops attempted to occupy the region in 1990–1992, Transnistria was able to resist them because of Russian troops based in Transnistria. These troops are now largely withdrawn following an agreement between Russia and Moldova and what is left is a peacekeeping force of Moldovan, Transnistrian and Russian troops. In a referendum held in 2006, more than 97% of Transnistrians voted for future reunification with Russia, and following the annexation of Crimea, the government asked whether it could be absorbed into Russia. Russia has not welcomed this as it probably prefers to retain these areas as buffer zones.

What is Russia’s relationship with them?

All three regions have Russia as their patron state and cannot survive without economic, political and military support from Moscow. They are seen as the client states of Russia, although Abkhazia has at times shown an independent streak. South Ossetia and Trinistria are more pro-Russian than Abkhazia. Their economy and banking system are all linked to that of Russia. Most people speak Russian, at least as a second language. They hold Russian passports and enjoy social security benefits such as pensions from Russia. So, obviously, they fall under the sphere of influence of Russia.

Could he be a model for the Republic of Donbass?

One of the solutions to resolve the crisis over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is for the Donbass republics to follow the model of these de facto states. They will receive recognition from Russia, receive security guarantors and continue to exist as de facto states. Russia would also benefit from having friendly areas on its borders, allowing it to remain a hegemony in the region. The question is, will Russia be able to subsidize them in view of Western sanctions on it?

(Uma Purushottam is Assistant Professor in the Department of International Relations, Central University of Kerala)