Can Xi Jinping topple Emmanuel Macron?

Joint visit is highlighting tensions in Europe over how to handle China escalating conflict with America and support for russia during the war in Ukraine. Across much of the continent, due to US pressure, public attitudes toward China have hardened and policy has hardened.

And yet many European governments and firms are keen to rebuild economic ties with China as it emerges from three years of isolation caused by its draconian restrictions over Covid-19. They are also wary of US efforts to contain China militarily technically,

Mr. Macron, making his first trip to China since 2019, and Mrs. von der Leyen, on her inaugural visit in her current role, will demonstrate unity during trilateral meetings in Beijing on 6 April. In particular, he is expected to urge Mr. Xi to clarify that China will not supply lethal Weapon for Russia, and for doing more to try to end the war in Ukraine.

they are also likely to exercise restraint Taiwanself-governing island claimed by china and whose president was tsai ing-wen due to meet Speaker of the US House of Representatives Kevin McCarthy in Los Angeles on April 5. China has threatened “firm counter-measures”. It hasn’t been detailed, but when the last speaker, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan in August, China fired missiles at the island and simulated a blockade.

As the European leaders’ trip progresses, their differences on China will become more pronounced. Mr. Macron will accompany Mr. Xi on a trip to Guangdong, the capital of Guangdong, where the Chinese leader’s father pioneered market-opening reforms. Mr Macron is traveling with 53 French officials from companies including Airbus, an aviation giant, and EDF, which works with Chinese partners on nuclear power. Many business deals are expected.

Mr. Macron is no China Pigeon. But he wants “strategic autonomy” for Europe and France to be a “balancing force”. Unlike many American politicians, he does not seek to isolate or contain China. He sees it as a potential “game-changer” on Ukraine.

Mrs von der Leyen, in contrast, has already upset Chinese officials by taking a more confrontational approach in a speech on March 30. Stating that Europe wanted to “de-risk” rather than “de-risk” its relationship with China, he echoed US concerns in calling for tighter controls on Europe’s technology trade with China. She expressed skepticism about a “peace plan” for Ukraine that China proposed in February, and said that China’s stance on the war would be a “determining factor” in its relations with the European Union.

Some EU member states consider Mrs von der Leyen too close to the Biden administration. But his speech reflected a change in attitudes towards China across Europe. This began before the war in Ukraine, as concerns grew over trade as well as issues related to China’s political influence and espionage operations.

In 2019 the European Commission declared China a “systemic rival”, as well as a partner and competitor. A shift towards viewing China as bellicose has accelerated, especially in Eastern and Central European countries where China has failed to deliver the promised economic benefits. Most are now aligning closely with the US as a result of the war in Ukraine.

The Chinese officials seemed taken aback by the tone of Mrs. von der Leyen’s speech. China’s ambassador to the European Union, Fu Kang, said, “There were a lot of misrepresentations and misinterpretations of Chinese policies.” Concluded in 2020, but was shelved after China imposed sanctions on European institutions and politicians in response to EU sanctions on Chinese officials involved in human rights abuses in Xinjiang. Chinese diplomats have recently suggested lifting sanctions simultaneously to revive the CAI.

The speech may have complicated Mr Macron’s plans. They hoped to show the kind of unity they tried to show when Mr Xi went to Paris in 2019. Those talks included Angela Merkel, then Chancellor of Germany, and Jean-Claude Juncker, then President of the European Union Commission. Last autumn, Mr. Macron wanted to make a joint visit to China with the current Chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz. But Mr. Scholz insisted on going alone. He was widely criticized in Europe for prioritizing German business interests.

In theory, Mrs von der Leyen’s speech could still work to Mr Macron’s advantage by diverting public attention away from his efforts to revive commercial ties and encouraging Mr Xi to make his visit a success. China increasingly looks to Mr. Macron as its main advocate within Europe, as Germany, its largest economic partner, becomes consumed by political debate over its China strategy.

At the same time, with protests over pension reforms continuing at home, Mr Macron faces greater pressure on Ukraine to secure a meaningful Chinese commitment. It would need to go beyond a simple expression of opposition to nuclear threats or attacks, as Mr. Xi told Mr. Scholz.

One possibility is for Mr. Xi to take a personal pledge not to arm Russia, similar to pledges already made by some Chinese officials. Another option is for Mr. Xi to schedule virtual talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Chinese officials had suggested this could happen soon after Mr Xi visited Moscow in March.

Still, Mr. Xi would avoid saying anything that would undermine his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. When Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sánchez, visited Beijing on March 30 and 31, he urged Mr. Xi to talk to Mr. Zelensky and recommended the Ukrainian leader’s peace plan, which includes a re-alignment of his country’s pre-2014 borders. restoration was envisioned. But there was no public response from China.

If Mr Xi gives some ground on Ukraine, Mr Macron’s visit may well impress Europeans who favor economic re-engagement with China and worry about America getting too close – especially if Donald Trump wins the presidential election in 2024. It won’t be the other way around. The trend towards a tougher stance on China in Europe but this may limit the pace and scope of change. It could also complicate Mr. Biden’s efforts to get Europe on board if, as expected, he further tightens restrictions on technology trade with China.

If Mr. Macron fails to extract at least one rhetorical Chinese concession on Ukraine, he could undermine the case for closer economic ties with China. He may also face more criticism after unsuccessfully trying to stop Mr Putin from going to war. Noah Barkin, of research firm Rhodium Group, says Mister will undoubtedly take advantage of any French signals about a willingness to re-engage economically. “The question is: will Macron offer something without receiving anything in return?”

© 2023, The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. From The Economist, published under license. Original content can be found at www.economist.com