Challenges before Akhilesh Yadav

Positioned as the main challenger to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav plans to fight the 2022 assembly elections with the support of smaller Other Backward Classes (OBC)-based parties. . In view of his unprofitable exploits with Congress and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in ‘Mahagathbandhan’ 2017 and 2019 respectively; Possibility of a personality-centric conflict with Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath; And the cumbersome process of seat-sharing, this may be the most practical option for them. It also ensures that the campaign is centered around his leadership.

The need for a strong social coalition

But to challenge the BJP’s over 40% (2019) vote share, Mr. Yadav will have to forge a broader social coalition. He has strengthened his party mainly with former and present leaders and MLAs of BSP. Most of the new entrants are OBCs and Dalits who have considerable influence over their communities or regions.

Mr Yadav is set to forge an alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) in western UP and Om Prakash Rajbhar’s party in Purvanchal, apart from forging an alliance with two smaller parties. Although smaller parties may not be in a position to win many or any seats on their own, previous examples have shown that due to the complement of votes received by a larger party with their loyal base, such transactions are mutually beneficial. This perhaps explains Mr. Yadav’s reluctance to forge an alliance with the Congress, which has no loyal community base in UP.

Even if Mr Yadav holds his herd together until the election, it is pertinent to ask whether he enjoys the same credibility that the BJP has built for itself, for converting arithmetic into votes. Apart from Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal, the BJP has tried to attract the scattered backward castes through three rupees: Ram (a symbol of the party’s Hindutva ideology and promoting a backward caste symbol through that lens). ; Ration (tangible and timely welfare schemes); and representation, albeit often nominal. Anti-Muslim sentiments and opposition to major OBC castes such as Yadavs have allowed the BJP to successfully bring disparate groups together.

An ideological framework to challenge Hindutva cannot be expected from Mr. Yadav. He cannot even afford to oppose the influential ‘upper castes’. His best bet, therefore, is to sidestep the BJP’s Hindutva strategy through an alternative narrative that combines caste mobilization with economic welfare while serving local political aspirations.

Mr. Adityanath’s saffron robes protect him from allegations of ‘Thakur appeasement’. But as a chief ministerial face, he was not tested, as he was planted as the head of government after the BJP won a majority. Furthermore, it is reasonable to wonder how long the BJP’s social arithmetic can last against agrarian discontent, inflation, unemployment, the contradictions inherent in its caste mobilization, the competing aspirations of castes and the tendency of voters in Uttar Pradesh to vote against them. could.

Persistent setbacks have forced Mr. Yadav to embrace his backward roots without the need to supplement it with his ‘further’ work. He has raised concerns about weakening reservations through privatization, promised a caste census if voted to power, and erected monuments and statues in honor of BC leaders and icons. He has expressed confidence that there will be a “backward revolution” in 2022 and tried to reach out to the Dalits by praising BR Ambedkar in his rallies.

But despite being in better shape than ever, Mr Yadav still faces some uncomfortable questions and the burden of the previous regime. His first task will be to mobilize the core vote base of Muslims and Yadavs (MY) into an undisputed thread and accommodate his uncle Shivpal, a potential spoiler. All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen leader Asaduddin Owaisi’s efforts to dismantle the ‘M-Y’ equation may not succeed, but may force Mr. Yadav to address the Muslim question, which the BJP would prefer. . While the alliance with the RLD in western UP looks promising in the context of the ongoing farmer protests against the BJP, the question remains whether Jats and other Hindu communities will rally behind Mr Yadav, during whose tenure the deadly communal violence in Muzaffarnagar broke out. . in 2013.

In recent years, especially after the development of caste-oriented backward leadership, non-Yadav OBCs have been politically trained to rally against Yadavs. They are led to believe that the community occupies the 27% OBC quota and most of the jobs, are disproportionately favored in recruitment, and that whenever the SP is in power, this capital is used to dominate the lower castes. do for.

In 2018, a committee constituted by the Adityanath government recommended splitting the 27% OBC quota into three groups. The committee reduced their share to 7% by including Yadavs, Jats and Kurmis in the first category of Backward. Implementing this would have jeopardized the BJP’s successful strategy of pitting non-Yadav OBCs against the Yadavs. The SP may not even openly support it, as the report reinforces the popular narrative of the BJP that Yadavs dominate and also because its core community will stand to lose. The report is still in cold storage. Interestingly, it is Mr Rajbhar, who had a successful stint with the BJP in 2017, when the party launched an aggressive anti-Yadav campaign, who is demanding the report be implemented. How the support base of Mr. Rajbhar and Mr. Yadav will deal with this conflict of interest remains to be seen.

BJP’s propaganda

In such a situation, there is a possibility of Hindu mobilization in favor of BJP. From fervor over Ram Mandir to law and police action punishing Muslims directly and indirectly, the BJP has a lot to show for its Hindutva constituency. When Mr. Yadav mentioned Muhammad Ali Jinnah at a recent rally, the BJP accused him of Muslim appeasement. It seems unlikely that Mr. Yadav, who has strategically distanced himself from Muslim symbolism, would try to woo Muslims through Jinnah. However, such moments provide an opportunity for the BJP to turn the campaign into a communal one.

In its campaign, the BJP has tried to bring back memories of firing on ‘kar sevaks’ in 1990 under the rule of Mr. Yadav’s father Mulayam Singh; And remember the string of communal incidents, controversy over attempts to withdraw cases against Muslim terrorist-accused individuals, ‘goondaism’, and support for recruiting Yadavs under Mr. Yadav in his first term.

Meanwhile, the SP has tried to present a new perspective through slogans like “.new wind, new dream (Ek Nayi Hawa, A New SP)”. It is an admission that it needed an image reform. But are the voters, especially the OBCs, convinced that this is the new SP? If Mr. Yadav does everything right So, will these communities continue to punish them for the perceptions and propaganda built around their social base? Mr. Yadav will need to present a model that promises how Akhilesh 2.0 will be different and more inclusive.

omar.rashid@thehindu.co.in