China adapts and adjusts its embrace of Russia in Ukraine crisis

Beijing has tried to adjust its position on the situation in Ukraine since Mr. Xi signed an extraordinary solidarity statement with Mr. Putin earlier this month, a decision influenced by the Chinese foreign-policy establishment. Stuck in the belief that Mr. Putin was not out for war.

“China supports Russia and Ukraine to resolve the issues through dialogue,” Mr. Xi told Mr. Putin in a phone call, while pledging to protect the international system with the United Nations. State media reported. Mr Putin told the Chinese leader he was ready for talks with Ukraine based on “signals received from Kiev”, according to a Kremlin readout of the call.

Late Friday, China avoided voting on a UN Security Council resolution aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.

For weeks, China’s foreign-policy establishment shrugged off a steady stream of warnings from the US and its European allies about a pending Russian offensive, and instead blamed Washington for fomenting Russian threats.

Now, China is trying to regain its balance after making a calculation that could seriously undermine the position it sought to build for itself as a global leader and advocate of developing countries. Is.

This weekend, with signs of an impending invasion, when a well-connected foreign-policy scholar in China spoke to a group of worried Chinese investors and analysts, he titled the speech “a war that is not Will happen” .”

“We see little chance of Russia unilaterally declaring war on Ukraine,” Shen Yi, a professor of international relations at Shanghai’s Fudan University who advises the government, told a teleconference organized by a securities firm on Tuesday. Said, according to the people who dialed in the call.

Less than 48 hours later, Mr. Putin launched a full-scale attack on Ukraine.

People with knowledge of Beijing’s inner workings say that relentlessly brushing off the risks of invasion, Beijing went into Mr. Xi’s reckoning for signing a deeper partnership with Russia on February 4, the opening day of the Winter Olympics.

In the days before Mr Putin’s visit to Beijing, policy advice to China’s top leadership focused on how the partnership could give China an advantage over the US, but ruled out the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine or Totally rejected. Close to Beijing’s foreign policy establishment.

“Anyone who makes policy recommendations in China, the top leaders want to hear what they want to hear,” said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank. “They feed information in that direction.”

This led Beijing to dismiss US warnings to the global community, based on intelligence that Mr Putin was not bluffing about his intention to attack.

Mr. Shen of Fudan, who has advised China’s top leaders on issues such as cyber security, did not respond to questions. China’s foreign ministry did not respond to questions.

The consequence of Beijing’s failure to anticipate Mr Putin’s actions: China’s embassy in Kiev on Thursday did not announce plans to evacuate Chinese nationals from the eastern European country until Russian troops left.

In recent years, China has pursued a multilateral agenda to bring other countries into its economic orbit, including financing projects in both Russia and Ukraine as part of Mr. Xi’s Belt and Road Initiative. It has led efforts to work through international organizations including the World Trade Organization and the United Nations. It has offered its COVID-19 vaccines to countries in Africa and Southeast Asia to establish itself as a benevolent world power.

Leaning on Russia during the Ukraine crisis, it has portrayed itself as a supporter of a country that is now universally condemned.

Since the invasion, China has been mired in an increasingly difficult diplomatic conflict. It needs to honor its partnership with Russia – one which both sides said a few weeks ago had “no boundaries” – while not abandoning its commitment to foreign-policy principles around non-interference, For which it would need to explicitly condemn the Russian attack. Adding to this is the balancing act of the US and its desire to prevent its relations with Europe from derailing completely.

Evan Feigenbaum, vice president of studies at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said, “They are in a difficult position because they are attempting both rhetorically and substantively to balance these goals, which quite simply coincide. Can’t eat.”

Beijing has not publicly called Russia’s massive attack on Ukraine an invasion.

Mr. Xi’s strategic decision to move closer to Moscow has been a long time coming. Upon coming to power in late 2012, the top Chinese leader tried to build relations with Washington, instructing bureaucrats, “We have a thousand reasons to make the Sino-US relationship right, and not a reason to spoil it.” Is.”

A brutal trade war with the Trump administration, which sought to hold Beijing accountable for its unfair trade practices, eroded the foundations of the relationship. Tensions then escalated with the Biden administration in areas ranging from human rights to Beijing’s sovereignty claims, further souring Mr. Xi on Washington.

The US-focused foreign-policy guideline Mr Xi set a decade ago has now been replaced with one focused on confronting the US driven by the agenda he shared with Mr Putin.

What Mr. Putin has gained from this is the presence of a powerful supporter, at least in China.

For China, so far, any gains remain unclear. The Russian leader, dubbed “Putin the Great” by many in China, helped save China’s face at the opening of the Beijing Olympics. With major Western powers boycotting the Games, Mr. Putin was Mr. Xi’s only true VIP guest. ,

In return, Mr Putin sought China’s support for Russia’s opposition to any expansion by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a key demand for Moscow’s standoff with the US-led coalition over Ukraine.

In a meeting with Mr. Xi before attending the opening ceremony of the Olympics, people close to Beijing’s foreign-policy establishment say, the Russian leader shared his grievances against the US—they say the complaints were from a Chinese leader. deeply resonates with those who have accused Washington. Trying to form factions to harm China. But Mr Putin left his plans for Ukraine out of talks, the people said.

The two leaders then issued an extraordinary joint declaration that brought Sino-Russia relations to their closest point since the early years of the Cold War after World War II. Presenting a united front against the US-led West, her statement did not mention Ukraine. After Mr Putin left, China’s top leaders remained behind closed doors for days trying to respond to the Ukraine crisis.

In recent days, Beijing’s response has fluctuated between more explicitly opposing an invasion and providing moral support for Moscow’s security concerns, while promoting threats from Russia to the US and its allies. continue to blame.

“For now, the strategy is, ‘all talk, take small action,'” said one of the people close to Beijing’s foreign policy establishment. Beijing has taken some modest steps to help Russia. On Thursday, it lifted a ban on Russian wheat imports that had existed for decades.