China is trying to establish permanent control over Aksai Chin: game theory analysis

a New study suggests strategic plan behind Chinese incursions into Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. China announced 20 measures to ‘optimize’ the existing epidemic control policy. People’s Liberation Army The latest aircraft technology was showcased at the Zhuhai Airshow. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping Face to face in Bali. US President Joe Biden will draw ‘red lines’ around US-China relations when he met Xi G-20 meeting,

China in a week

After much speculation about the upcoming adjustment of COVID-19 policy, Beijing announced 20 measures to ease one of the tightest pandemic controls in the world. last week, we discussed Rumors about an adjustment in policy, resulting in a market rally of $450 billion. Well, the rumor was not completely wrong.

After the announcement of the easing, international media reported that Beijing was abandoning epidemic control policy as Covid cases was Crossed the 10,000 mark. But that’s not the whole story.

On November 11, Beijing issued 20 policy measures To accommodate the current regime of epidemic control. The gist of the 20 measures is that Beijing is not waiving all but the strictest Covid rules, including those on international travel, but “adapting” the controls.

Key measures include reducing the quarantine time for people who are considered ‘close contacts’.Seven-day centralized quarantinethree-Day Home Quarantine from ‘Five-day centralized quarantine+three-Day Home Quarantine’. ‘Close contact’ remains a vague description, and we’ve seen authorities quarantine an entire apartment complex when a positive case emerges. discovered,

The authorities will also stop tracing secondary contacts, Which one? The health machinery of the government was overburdened. Whoever spread the rumor to a special group of financial analysts on WeChat has a satisfactory Benefit.

The COVID-19 policy adjustment was not the only major announcement by Beijing. There may be a relief package for the real estate market facing the crisis. Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that Beijing is working on a rescue plan to rescue stressed property developers. Bloomberg reported, “As part of the rescue plan, developers’ outstanding bank loans and trust lending may be extended by one year within the next six months, while repayments on their bonds may also be extended or swapped. “

The real estate crisis has been described as a ‘slow-moving crisis’ that could structurally affect the Chinese economy in the coming years. Beijing wants to address the crisis by ensuring that Chinese people who have put their life savings into real estate don’t see their savings disappear – sparking widespread discontent.

If you are an aviation nut, you must have tracked the Zhuhai Airshow that concluded on Sunday. have an air show developed as a site for pla Air Force will show its the most modern Military Aviation Technology.

During the show, we saw better-resolution imagery of the J-20 stealth fighter jets circulated on social media. Andreas Ruprecht, an independent aviation researcher, Estimate He The PLA has at least 200 J-20 fighter jets and 240 J-16 strike aircraft. The estimate was based on the number series depicted on the two jets and tracked by Rupprecht.

at airshows, The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation publicly unveiled the unmanned drone FH-97A, also known as the ‘loyal wingman’, which has been dubbed by experts as a clone of Boeing.‘s MQ-28 Ghost Bat Drone. “The FH-97A can perform collaborative reconnaissance with special mission aircraft, as it can detect potential threats and provide early warning by flying ahead of manned aircraft, or it can take advantage of its long endurance to increase reconnaissance time and Can also increase the range. and range” informed of state ownership Global Times,

On November 8, Xi Visited Beijing’s Joint Operations Command Center. Although news headlines about the trip suggested that he called for the military to be “battle-ready”, the context of the comments here is important. This does not mean that he is asking the PLA to be prepared to fight in a particular conflict. the intersection of the phrases ‘revolutionary’ in Mandarin and she’s so Behind the ‘preparedness for war’ comment is the emphasis on building a modern army.

“We must take into account our duties and missions, strengthen national security situation research and judgment, strengthen the reality of military conflict response, strengthen command operation exercise innovation, and strive to build a strategic command institution One who is absolutely loyal, good at battle planning, skilled in command and has the courage to win, so as to comprehensively strengthen the training and preparation for war and effectively accomplish the mission and tasks of our military in the new era A new and bigger contribution can be made for this. Told During the visit, Mr.

Roderick Lee, a China expert in the US Air Force, compiled an excellent thread Explaining the context and implications of Xi’s visit to the Joint Operations Command Center (JOCC). Many have speculated about the existence of JOCC as a separate entity, but Xi’s visit has now confirmed its existence. The PLA’s JOCC is modeled after the US Joint Special Operations Command, which played a key role in Operation Desert Storm, the Bosnian War, Operation Iraqi Freedom and other major US military operations.

Since the PLA reforms that began in 2016, Xi has focused on developing joint synergy between the branches. army,

“These goals reflect Xi’s conviction that his vision of “national rejuvenation” cannot be achieved by the middle of this century without a first-class military. For him, the PLA bears the responsibility of ‘shaping’ [China’s] security posture, prevent and manage crises and conflicts, and win local wars,” Bonnie Lynn and Joel Wuthnow wrote in a recent foreign Affairs Article.


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a new study suggested That China’s incursions into parts of Aksai Chin and areas of Arunachal Pradesh are not sudden but part of a strategic plan.

Accumulating datasets from 2006 to 2020, the authors from Northwestern University, the Technical University of Delft in the Netherlands and the Netherlands Defense Academy used game theory and statistical analysis to study patterns of Chinese incursions along the Line of Actual Control.

“Although hotspots occur throughout Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, the researchers’ game-theory analysis indicates that intrusions only in Aksai Chin are part of a coordinated effort. Based on insights from game theory, the researchers speculate that China is trying to establish permanent control over Aksai Chin by allocating more troops for a longer period of time than India. published in the magazine one more,

the study It shows There has been a spurt in intrusions along the LAC when the Chinese economy is facing extreme stress including ‘low consumer confidence’. The study says that when India was seen getting closer to the US, China increased its infiltration. The study confirms the pattern of China’s infiltration and infrastructure construction along the LAC, which other experts have pointed out with hard evidence compiled in a database.

These activities indicate Beijing’s interest in maintaining asymmetry with India for broader geopolitical goals in Asia and the world. Study points to no near-term solution To The present phase of India-China tension. foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar had indicated a similar assessment in his remarks earlier last week. “We have been doing a lot about various policies and announcements and the state of relations. I don’t think there is any ambiguity about our signaling and our messaging,” Jaishankar said. The Hindustan Times Leadership Summit.

The tension between the two giants isn’t just confined to land – the sea remains another area of ​​contention. Two Chinese surveillance vessels, Yuan Wang 6 and 5, have entered the Indian Ocean. two vessels are connected Strategic Assistance Force of the PLA. The presence of both the ships has been linked to a possible missile test by India, which may take place around November 23-24. ‘zone Alarm’ Information,

Beijing claims the ships are the only exploration ships that collect data for China’s space launches. Yuan Wang 5 is the ship that angered New Delhi by docking at Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port earlier this year.

World leaders will gather for the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia on 14 November. Modi and Xi will once again be face to face this year after the participation of both the leaders Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan. There is no indication that Modi will hold any bilateral meetings, and we may see another ‘fly-by’ interaction between Modi and Xi at the G20 summit.

The world will also be keeping a close eye on the face-to-face meeting between Biden and Xi, confirmed by the White House.

Biden held brief talks on Sunday Sugar Premier Li Keqiang at the East Asia Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. According to the White House, Biden Underlined The issue of access to the South and East China Sea during their brief encounter. meeting between Biden and keqiangTook The talks are the first between the top US and Chinese leadership in two years – setting the stage for a meeting with Xi.

according to the White House Statement, The two sides will discuss “how to manage competition responsibly and work together where our interests align”. Earlier on Wednesday, Biden set the tone for an upcoming meeting with Xi Bai Saying that he would try to draw a ‘red line’ in the deteriorating relations between the US and China and that he was unwilling to make any major concessions when fulfills Xi in Bali.

we have learned That Biden will ask Xi to investigate North Korea’s nuclear test ambitions when they meet in Bali on Monday. Along the lines of the strategy drawn up, the chances of any significant deterioration in US-China relations remain slim.


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“In addition, bilateral trade between China and Pakistan is now mainly by sea. Xinjiang shares a border with Pakistan, but the share of trade between Xinjiang and Pakistan is relatively small in the volume of trade between the two countries. On the one hand, it deals with the creation of infrastructure, and on the other, it involves the security situation in Pakistan. Told Liu Zonghai, secretary general of the Center for China and South Asia Studies of the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, expressed the challenges faced in promoting better economic relations between China and Pakistan.

“China is willing to actively support Pakistan under the framework of the China-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement. China will expand exports to Pakistan and welcome high-quality Pakistani goods such as food and agricultural products to enter the Chinese market. A large number of goods from China are duty free for Pakistan. Taking such measures benefits Pakistan’s exports to China,” Liu said.

The author is a columnist and a freelance journalist, currently pursuing an MSc in International Politics with a focus on China from the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS), University of London. He was previously a Chinese media reporter for the BBC World Service. He tweeted @aadilbrar. Thoughts are personal.

(Edited by Tarannum Khan)