Delayed data shows China’s economy grew 3.9%, but retail sales disappointed
China’s long-delayed economic data showed a mixed recovery in the third quarter, accelerating growth despite rising unemployment and weak retail sales in September.
GDP in the July-to-September period grew 3.9 percent from a year earlier, rebounding from nearly steady growth in the second quarter when Shanghai was still in lockdown. That figure was stronger than the average estimate of 3.3 percent in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
The data was postponed for almost a week as the country held its 20th Party Congress – a major political event during which President Xi Jinping secured a third term as head of the ruling Communist Party and ceded his power. shored up.
Monthly indicators for September paint a weak picture. After four months of decline, unemployment rose to 5.5 per cent in September from 5.3 per cent in August. Retail sales growth slowed to 2.5 per cent, compared to August’s growth of 5.4 per cent and an estimated 3 per cent.
Industrial output in September rose 6.3 percent from a year earlier, up from August’s 4.2 percent and beating economists’ forecast of 4.8 percent. Fixed asset investments grew 5.9 per cent in the first nine months of the year, mainly in line with expectations.
The data was “a bit surprising on the upside,” said Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. The results will strengthen the government’s policy stance, he said, with a focus on “prudent and targeted” efforts.
The benchmark CSI 300 index slipped up to 1 per cent after rising 0.5 per cent earlier. The onshore yuan fell 0.3 per cent to 7.2487 per dollar.
NBS said in a statement accompanying the data that the economy overcame the negative impact from “several unforeseen shocks”, adding that key indicators “have recovered and stabilized to remain within a reasonable range.”
country also released business data Export growth showing slowdown in Monday September. Exports in US dollar terms grew 5.7 per cent last month from a year ago, up from 7.1 per cent in August, while imports grew 0.3 per cent, unchanged from the previous month. That data was also delayed during the party congress.
What does Bloomberg Economics say…
The fall in China’s export growth in September is proof that global demand is declining. Things could get worse in 4Q, with a weak global outlook, meaning bleak prospects for China’s exports. A diminishing buffer from exports – a key growth crutch during the pandemic – leaves the economy more vulnerable to asset slowdown and Covid Zero restrictions.
Eric Zhu, Chinese economist
China is trying to stage a recovery as there was a risk of smaller COVID outbreaks across the country in the third quarter, resulting in curbs on mobility and eroding consumer and business confidence.
During a speech after the end of the Congress, Xi said that China’s economy “flexibleand vowed to deepen economic ties with other countries.
“China cannot develop in isolation from the world. The development of the world also needs China,” Xi said while addressing an audience of Chinese and foreign journalists.
The economy has come under heavy pressure, with economists now projecting growth at just 3.3 percent for all of 2022 – far below the official target of about 5.5 percent set earlier this year. Instead of focusing on job stability and other metrics, executives began to downplay that target in recent months as it grew out of reach.
– With the assistance of James Meager.
(Except for the title, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)