Coal India Q4 Preview: Revenue Growth, PAT, Salary Hike Impact, Key Factors Here

Coal India share price on Friday 237.35 on the BSE, broadly flat compared to the previous session. Overall, the weekly performance has led to a 1.3% gain in the share price of Coal India.

It needs to be noted that Coal India has already announced the production and offtake data for full FY23 in the month of April.

For the period April 2022 to March 2023, Coal India’s total production stands at 703.2 million tonnes, registering a growth of 12.9% from 622.6 million tonnes in FY22. Offtake increased by 5% to 694.7 million tonnes in FY23 as against 661.9 million tonnes in the previous fiscal.

What to expect from Coal India in Q4FY23?

In its preview note, ICICI Direct said, “For Q4FY23E, Coal India (CIL) reported a coal offtake of 187 million tonnes (MT), up 4% YoY. For the quarter, we expect That CIL’s consolidated topline will grow 18% YoY. 38,635 crores. Consolidated EBITDA margin for Q4FY23E is expected to come in at 27.5% as compared to 27.8% in Q4FY22 and 29.5% in Q3FY23. For Q4FY23E, we expect Coal India’s EBITDA/tonne to be 568/tonne as against 504/tonne in Q4FY22 and 590/tonne in Q2FY23. Next Consolidated PAT for the quarter expected to come 8,062 crore, up 20% YoY and 4% QoQ.

Accordingly, ICICI Direct is expecting revenue of 38,635 crore from Coal India in Q4FY23 grew 18% YoY and 10% QoQ. Factored into EBITDA 10,625 crore growing at 17% YoY and 2% QoQ. seen on PAT 8,062 crore by 20% YoY and 4% QoQ.

Meanwhile, Axis Securities in its preview note on Coal India said, “Revenue YoY/QoQ up partially offset by lower e-auction premium on account of higher coal dispatches. For Jan-Feb’23 The e-auction premium was ~180%. , which is lower than the Q3FY23 premium of 241% on FSA. (Q4FY22 at 65%). However, the lower e-auction premium is offset by higher e-auction volume. Cumulative Jan- Feb’23 e-auction quantity was 14.96MT (vs Q3FY23 at 14.65MT) (Q4FY22 at 28MT).

Coal India’s FY23 coal dispatches grew by 5% YoY to 694.7MT, implying Q4FY23 off-take of 187MT.

In terms of operating profit, the Axis report said, “Adjusted EBITDA excluding stripping activities to de-grow YoY/QoQ mainly due to higher salary expense, partially offset by higher revenue and staff expenses.” The increase is expected. Increment was announced in Jan’23. We estimate the total provision 6,300 crore for employee expenses in FY23.

However, the brokerage’s note said, “stripping activity including EBITDA tended to decrease year-over-year due to higher stripping expenses and employee expenses.”

The brokerage also expects the adjusted EBITDA margin to decline quarter-on-quarter due to higher employee expenses.

Thus, Axis Securities expects 19.5% YoY and 29.7% QoQ decline in Coal India’s Ebitda 7,304 crore with a margin of 31.5%. Similarly, PAT is expected to decline by 15.2% YoY and 26.8% QoQ 5,676 crores. On the contrary, revenue is looked at 34,878 crore growing by 16.1% YoY and 7.6% QoQ.

During the December 2023 quarter, Coal India’s net profit increased by 70% 7,755.55 crore on a consolidated basis as compared to Rs. 4,558.39 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. consolidated revenue from operations 35,169 cr in Q3FY23 as compared to Rs. 28,433 crore in the same period last year.

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