Bengaluru: Karnataka will vote on May 10 in what is probably the most anticipated election before 2024 as two national parties, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress, go head-to-head for a result that could set the tone for the general election .
The southern state cannot be viewed as a homogeneous entity, but as a confluence of all its complexities including caste, integration history and diverse regions that influence its society and politics in different ways.
The politics that works in North Karnataka may not necessarily work in the southern districts. The same is true for Coastal Karnataka and Central districts. The results reflect this uncertainty.
The Congress is the only party to have won a majority in the last four elections since 2000 (in 2013), while all others have fractured mandates and unstable coalitions. Siddaramaiah, who was the chief minister from 2013-2018, is one of the few chief ministers to have completed his full term in office.
The last time a party retained power was in 1985, when the Janata Party led by Ramakrishna Hegde was mandated for a second term. In fact, Hegde took the oath three times in a row as Chief Minister between January 1983 and September 1988, returning each time with a different coalition partner.
The BJP has ruled Karnataka for nine years and four of its leaders – Jagadish Shettar, DV Sadananda Gowda, Basavaraj Bommai and BS Yeddyurappa – have taken turns as chief ministers. Yediyurappa was forced to step down from the top post four times (in 2007, 2011, 2018 and 2021).
diverse political landscape
Broadly speaking, Karnataka is divided into Kittur-Karnataka (North Western districts), Kalyana-Karnataka (North Eastern districts), Coastal and Southern Karnataka. However, there are other sub-categories such as Central Karnataka, Malnad and Bengaluru (Urban), which in themselves account for 28 seats. Bengaluru Rural is reckoned with South Karnataka and has 4 seats.
Bangalore
Bengaluru is taken as a unit in itself as there are 28 constituencies in the city alone and about 4 seats in the rural district, some of which overlap the outskirts of the city. Home to over 1.3 crore people, Bengaluru is important to all the political parties involved.
Of the total 26 seats (elections for two were held later), the BJP won 11, the Congress 13 and the Janata Dal (Secular), or JD(S), 2 in 2018. This was largely unchanged from the 2013 elections. ,
Bangalore is known to be a Vokkaliga-dominated city and the BJP has consistently performed well in Lok Sabha elections from this district. The party has been ruling the Municipal Corporation (Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagara Palike) for two consecutive terms since 2010.
Civic elections have not been held since September 2020, with the government being blamed for its creaking infrastructure, floods and uncontrolled development.
Old Mysore and Southern Region
This is the region known as the Vokkaliga belt and from where the JD(S) draws most of its strength. In 2018, the HDDevegowda-led party won 30 seats, including all 7 seats in Mandya district, the epicenter of Karnataka’s agrarian politics.
Major changes took place in areas like old Mysuru. In all, there are 73 seats spread over 11 districts, including Bengaluru Rural, Mysuru, Mandya, Kolar, Ramanagara, Chikmagalur, Hassan and Kodagu.
In this region, the BJP won 21 seats in 2018, compared to 6 seats in 2013. The Congress also won 21 seats here, 10 less than in 2013. In 2018, 2 independents won, whereas in 2013, 6 won.
coastal districts
Often referred to as the Hindutva laboratory of the BJP, the coastal districts are perhaps the only region in Karnataka where caste-based politics takes a back seat and is engulfed by communal-brand politics.
In 2018, the BJP began its election campaign by highlighting how under Siddaramaiah, 23 Hindu activists were killed by ‘jihadis’ to bring all caste groups under the larger umbrella of religion.
The BJP made the biggest gains here, as it won 16 out of a total of 19 seats in Dakshina Kannada, Udupi and Uttara Kannada – 13 more than in 2013. Congress could win only 3 as compared to 13 in 2013.
Kittur Karnataka (Mumbai-Karnataka)
Earlier known as Mumbai-Karnataka, the Kittur-Karnataka region is the BJP’s biggest bastion from where it draws most of its strength as Lingayats are one of the largest groups in these parts. There are a total of 50 seats in these six districts.
The BJP won 30 seats in 2018, 17 more than in 2013, while the Congress won only 17 as against 31 in the previous election. JD(S) won just 2 seats as compared to last time. Only 1 independent has won here as against 5 in 2013 which includes KJP and others.
Kalyan Karnataka (Hyderabad-Karnataka)
One of the most backward districts in India, the Kalyan-Karnataka region has a total of 41 seats. The BJP won 17 seats in 2018, up from 5 in 2013. The Congress won 20 seats as the region has a mix of backward classes, Kurubas, Lingayats and minorities, compared to 24 in the previous elections.
JD(S) has registered 4 wins in this constituency. In 2013, Karnataka Janata Paksha (KJP) and B. There was the Badavara Shramik Raitara Congress Party (BSRCP) led by Sriramulu and several other parties which contested the election independently.
central district
There are 13 seats in the two central districts of Chitradurga and Davangere. The BJP won 10 of these in 2018, compared to just 1 seat in 2013. The Congress managed to win only 3 seats from the region in 2013, as against 10 in the previous elections. JD(S) managed to win 1 in 2013, but none in 2018.
(Edited by Tony Rae)
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