CoP-26: We must shift gears from climate intent to real action

The scientific outlook is bleak. In May, the World Meteorological Organization warned that there was a 40% chance that annual mean global temperatures would exceed 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, at least temporarily, over the next five years—and the odds would increase. Will continue This can trigger potentially catastrophic tipping points.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is now finalizing its next major climate-change report, which will be released ahead of the 26th United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP-26) of the Parties in Glasgow. Each IPCC report has been stronger than the previous one, and there is no reason to think that the next report will break this pattern.

After all, the world is not on track to meet the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rise to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, let alone its “ideal” target of 1.5 °C by the end of this century. Give it. As revealed in last February’s preliminary issue of the Synthesis Report of All Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), we are on the way to an increase of 3 °C or more by 2100.

Yet all hope is not lost. While we are moving towards a point of no return, it is not too late to change course, moving forward on a more sustainable path that enables us to avert the worst effects of climate change. The Paris Agreement already offers a comprehensive roadmap.

A map that is not followed means little. All countries must cooperate in implementing the changes we require for the Paris Agreement. This means meeting individual commitments and working to reduce carbon emissions by 45% (from 2010 levels) by 2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. The IPCC has recommended staying below the 1.5 degree Celsius limit. It also means adaptation and better resilience to future climate-related challenges.

This is a tall order. But there is reason to believe that the world can accomplish this. The recent virtual sessions of the subsidiary bodies of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change were encouraging. Delegates engaged effectively on a wide range of important topics, and, while consensus on many key issues remained out of reach, progress was made. An important lesson from those discussions was that political guidance is necessary to advance the agenda. This message was presented vehemently in the recently convened ministerial meeting convened by the nominated COP-26 President Alok Sharma. Ministers and high level representatives of countries were present in all the major negotiating groups.

Every COP has been important. But increasing environmental challenges have meant that each has been more consequential than the last. COP-26 is no exception. Conversely, given the devastating impact of the Covid pandemic on societies around the world and its disruptive effects on our process, the stakes have risen. But the crisis also represents a powerful opportunity for progress, as countries seek to “build better.”

The world has to make COP-26 a success. Our only chance of arriving at a path that will keep us below the 1.5°C threshold is a critical credibility test for the global fight against climate change. If we pass that test, confidence in our collective ability to face borderless challenges like the pandemic will be strengthened.

To this end, there are several important issues that must be resolved in CoP-26. But four priorities stand out:

First, past promises must be kept. Demonstrating that the commitments made by 2020 have been met is essential to building trust between countries. This includes, for example, a goal of raising $100 billion annually to aid developing economies in the green transition by 2020, and providing assistance in the form of capacity building and technology transfer. Developed countries have mobilized vast resources to support their economies during the pandemic. They must show the same level of commitment to driving the transition toward a more sustainable and climate-resilient future – and that means ensuring that their developing counterparts have the support they need.

Second, outstanding disagreements on finance, transparency, adaptation and resilience, loss and damage, and technical assistance and guidance for developing countries must be resolved, so that the Paris Agreement can be fully implemented. Protecting people and the planet we live in is more important than any technical disagreement, no matter how complex or controversial.

Third, ambitions must be raised. Countries must commit to much in all three key areas of the climate agenda: mitigation, adaptation and finance. The next NDC synthesis report, to be delivered before COP-26, will give a more complete picture of progress so far, as it will include more major emitters. Whatever this report shows, there is little doubt that more ambitious, firm plans from both government and business will be necessary to get the world on the 1.5°C path.

In the end, no voice can remain unheard, and no motion is unattainable. Everyone has a role to play in dealing with a serious crisis like climate change. This is why a successful COP-26 requires balanced representation of all sectors and groups, with observers and other non-party stakeholders, including nine NGO constituencies, positively involved in the process. Initiatives such as the Marrakech Partnership for Global Climate Action and the Race to Zero campaign should make meaningful contributions to climate action and promote climate ambition globally.

The bottom line is that there won’t be two or three ‘big’ announcements for a successful COP-26. Only a balanced package of decisions and actions that reflect the expectations, concerns and needs of all stakeholders—not to mention remarkable ambition—can do so.

It has become a cliche to say that global problems require global solutions. And yet, as recent crises have shown, this could not be more true. From covid to climate change, no one is safe until everyone is safe.

Runaway climate change is not inevitable, but if we don’t act fast, it will. We proved the task of locating its drivers and creating a comprehensive global strategy to address it. Now, it is up to our governments to lead, to innovate our businesses and our societies to come together in service of a common purpose: building a sustainable future. ©2021/Project Syndicate

Patricia Espinosa is the acting secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.