Coronavirus Omicron variant transmission rate: Possible reasons behind Omicron variants being more transmissible

Since, current data suggests that Omicron cases have been ‘mild’ so far, experts believe the reason behind this is why they are more transmissible.

Recently, researcher, lecturer and a leading AI expert Dr Eli David suggested this on Twitter. “It (Omicron version) may be highly transmitted, but the cases we are seeing so far are very mild,” he was quoted as saying by the South African Medical Association. Further down, he wrote, “It makes a lot of sense. Fewer viral mutations have more evolutionary advantage. That’s how the Spanish flu ended.”

Given the theoretical aspect of viral evolution, this may be a possibility. The idea dates back to the 1980s when evolutionary epidemiologist Paul Ewald developed the “theory of mythology”. The theory states that the more virulent a germ is, the less likely it is to spread. For example, if a person becomes extremely ill to the point of dying, he cannot actually spread the infection.

This means that if a virus wants to survive and evolve, it must reduce its virulence, which in turn increases transmission.

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