The 24-hour rise in infections, which was around 3,000 on January 19, when 26,981 new cases were reported in the state, has been declining steadily. On January 20, the state recorded 28,561 new cases, which was 1,580 more than the previous day. On Saturday, the state’s tally stood at 874 cases, higher than the 29,870 cases reported on Friday.
Simultaneously, the effective reproduction number (R-naught) – one of the major epidemiological factors – has also begun to decline. R-naught indicates how many new cases an infected person produces. On December 25, 2021, when Tamil Nadu reported around 606 new cases, the R-naught was 1.4 and till December 31, when infections rose to over 1,155 cases in a day, the R-naught was 3.35. On New Year’s Day it was 3.46. If R0 is three, experts expect each new case of a disease to produce three other infections. However, the R-naught in Tamil Nadu has now come down to 1.26.
Vellore-based Dr T Jacob John says the fall in infection growth rate is one of the key indicators that the state may be nearing its peak. “We have seen this in every pandemic wave. Cases peak after growth rate falls. When cases drop, active cases will rise for a few days. When active cases start falling, deaths will increase. Deaths will peak and fall,” They said.
Health officials, however, want to remain vigilant till several other factors like the positivity rate are brought under control. At the peak of the second wave in 2021, daily cases were hovering between 30,000 and 36,000 for more than two weeks between May 12, 2021 and May 29, 2021. “We have fewer people in hospitals, and we do not have a shortage of oxygen or drugs,” Health Minister Ma Subramaniam said.
Oxygen consumption for medical and non-medical use across the state is now estimated to be 117 MT per day, compared to over 500 MT for hospitals at the peak of infection in May 2021. “It’s probably because of better vaccination coverage,” he said. The state has vaccinated up to 89% of its adults with the first dose and 63% of them with two doses, compared to the national average of 92% for the first dose and 68% for the second dose.
About 1.5 lakh people were being tested daily in the state. Nevertheless, the weekly average positivity rate is around 17% in the state and in at least five districts – Chennai (28.3), Chengalpet (27.1), thiruvallur (24.2), Krishnagiri (22.4) and Coimbatore (21.8) – the average is above 20%. The disease has spread from cities to rural areas after the Pongal holidays for the past one week.
Out of 1.29 lakh habitations, over 28,000 have active COVID cases and out of 1.27 lakh roads in urban areas, more than 32,000 people are undergoing treatment for the viral infection.
Health secretary J Radhakrishnan said, “We cannot slow down vaccination, or let go of guard on masks and other pandemic protocols. We may not see zero cases anytime soon, but we have to be careful till then.” Cases don’t reach baseline.” , Fresh cases in Chennai declined to 6,452 from 7,038 on Friday, but Coimbatore, which reported 3,886 new cases, reported the sharpest daily increase from 3,653.
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