New Delhi: India is unlikely to see one covid Many experts have said that a devastating second wave will be there unless there is a new immune escape variant, but the low number of cases does not mean the pandemic is now endemic.
Giving hope and injecting a note of caution, as the festive season coincides with Diwali just a few days ahead, he said a dipping Covid graph is only part of the picture and mortality rates, the need for a bigger vaccination cover. points to factors such as Examples of countries like the UK where numbers are rising again.
Appreciating the milestone of 100 crore Covid vaccine doses in India, Virologists Shahid Jameel Vaccination rates have improved a lot, but more needs to be done, he said.
“I am not sure if we are in the endemic position yet… As we celebrate this (100 crore) landmark, there is still some distance to go. We are moving towards endemism, but not yet,” Jameel, a visiting professor at Ashoka University in Haryana, told PTI in an email interview.
He also noted that the daily confirmed COVID cases in India have gradually come down from around 40,000 per day in the last three months to around 15,000 per day now.
According to the Union Health Ministry’s data on Saturday, there were 16,326 new COVID-19 cases, marking 29 straight days of a daily increase of less than 30,000. The death toll rose to 4,53,708 with 666 deaths.
Jameel, one of India’s most renowned virologists, also pointed out that the mortality rate in the country is stable at around 1.2 per cent.
“This tells me that vaccine coverage in India still needs to be increased,” he said.
A disease is described as endemic when it is present in a given geographic area but its effects are manageable.
“There have been some confusing claims lately about this … Fewer cases for some time mean no endemicity. It is possible that some parts of the country have close endemicity, but the data needed to confirm this is readily available. Not available from Murad BanjikSenior Lecturer in Mathematics at the UK’s Middlesex University, who has been closely tracking India’s Covid graph and has conducted several model studies.
“For example, we don’t know how many current infections are occurring in people who have been previously vaccinated or infected,” Banaji told PTI.
He said no one knows what an “endemic future” will look like or what level of Covid-19 to expect. It is likely that measures to control transmission will still be needed for some years to come.
Epidemic Ramanan Laxminarayan Agreed, adding that even with an endemic disease flare-ups can occur from time to time as is being seen in the UK.
“I believe we should wait two months before determining whether COVID-19 poses a significant future threat to the country,” Lakshmi NarayanDirector of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy in Washington told PTI in an email interview.
in uk, Jameel Noted, the caseload has increased from about 30,000 cases per day in mid-September to about 50,000 cases per day. However, the death rate has dropped from 2 per cent in mid-July to around 0.2 per cent now.
In the US, after reaching about 200,000 cases per day in early September, cases have now dropped to around 80,000 per day. However, the death rate remains the same as earlier in the year.
Experts said India will continue to experience a localized rise in Covid cases, even though it is unlikely to see another huge jump in infections, as it did during the second wave when the country’s health system was overwhelmed and thousands of people died. were killed.
Banaji said there have been a large number of infections recently, and vaccination is progressing at a reasonable pace.
“…both of these make the chances of a major new wave coming in the next few months down,” he explained.
“Newer versions could potentially still present a challenge. Any new variant that spreads more easily, especially among people who have been vaccinated or previously infected, could spark new surges.” .
Hopefully, he said, India will never see a wave again on the April-June 2021 scale, although there may be some increase in transmission during the festive season.
Jamil agreed. A major third wave is unlikely unless a new variant emerges that survives the existing immunity and spreads rapidly but small localized growth can be expected after Diwali such as in West Bengal after Durga Puja. took place in
In his view, the focus should be on ensuring that all people with one dose get the second dose early.
He said that while the 100 crore vaccination milestone is an achievement for any country, India also has a huge population and many are yet to be vaccinated.
According to data from the Co-Win portal, more than 71 crore vaccine doses were administered as the first dose and over 29 crore doses as the second dose. More than 75 percent of India’s adult population has received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine and more than 31 percent of the country’s approximately 93 million adults have received both doses.
Banji said that as long as there are vulnerable people, for example those who live without vaccination, or who have weakened immune systems, a large increase would mean more deaths.
“For these reasons, local authorities should plan how to keep transmission down for the foreseeable future.”
“Children need to go to school, and people need to work and earn a living. But there are a lot of measures that reduce the risk without stopping life, ”emphasized the scientist.
Terming the expansion of vaccination coverage as a “huge success”, Laxminarayan said this one measure alone would contribute to India being less vulnerable to Covid than many other countries.
“Official figures show only a small part of the picture. We know that the recorded cases are a small fraction of the infections, and the recorded COVID-19 deaths are a small fraction of the total pandemic deaths,” Banaji said.
“What is worrying is that surveillance is so poor in some parts of the country that if a new surge begins we may not see it in official figures,” he said.
The scientist said it is very important to encourage transparency and better surveillance, placing states like Kerala and Maharashtra as examples of better surveillance rather than criticizing them for their high numbers.
Giving hope and injecting a note of caution, as the festive season coincides with Diwali just a few days ahead, he said a dipping Covid graph is only part of the picture and mortality rates, the need for a bigger vaccination cover. points to factors such as Examples of countries like the UK where numbers are rising again.
Appreciating the milestone of 100 crore Covid vaccine doses in India, Virologists Shahid Jameel Vaccination rates have improved a lot, but more needs to be done, he said.
“I am not sure if we are in the endemic position yet… As we celebrate this (100 crore) landmark, there is still some distance to go. We are moving towards endemism, but not yet,” Jameel, a visiting professor at Ashoka University in Haryana, told PTI in an email interview.
He also noted that the daily confirmed COVID cases in India have gradually come down from around 40,000 per day in the last three months to around 15,000 per day now.
According to the Union Health Ministry’s data on Saturday, there were 16,326 new COVID-19 cases, marking 29 straight days of a daily increase of less than 30,000. The death toll rose to 4,53,708 with 666 deaths.
Jameel, one of India’s most renowned virologists, also pointed out that the mortality rate in the country is stable at around 1.2 per cent.
“This tells me that vaccine coverage in India still needs to be increased,” he said.
A disease is described as endemic when it is present in a given geographic area but its effects are manageable.
“There have been some confusing claims lately about this … Fewer cases for some time mean no endemicity. It is possible that some parts of the country have close endemicity, but the data needed to confirm this is readily available. Not available from Murad BanjikSenior Lecturer in Mathematics at the UK’s Middlesex University, who has been closely tracking India’s Covid graph and has conducted several model studies.
“For example, we don’t know how many current infections are occurring in people who have been previously vaccinated or infected,” Banaji told PTI.
He said no one knows what an “endemic future” will look like or what level of Covid-19 to expect. It is likely that measures to control transmission will still be needed for some years to come.
Epidemic Ramanan Laxminarayan Agreed, adding that even with an endemic disease flare-ups can occur from time to time as is being seen in the UK.
“I believe we should wait two months before determining whether COVID-19 poses a significant future threat to the country,” Lakshmi NarayanDirector of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy in Washington told PTI in an email interview.
in uk, Jameel Noted, the caseload has increased from about 30,000 cases per day in mid-September to about 50,000 cases per day. However, the death rate has dropped from 2 per cent in mid-July to around 0.2 per cent now.
In the US, after reaching about 200,000 cases per day in early September, cases have now dropped to around 80,000 per day. However, the death rate remains the same as earlier in the year.
Experts said India will continue to experience a localized rise in Covid cases, even though it is unlikely to see another huge jump in infections, as it did during the second wave when the country’s health system was overwhelmed and thousands of people died. were killed.
Banaji said there have been a large number of infections recently, and vaccination is progressing at a reasonable pace.
“…both of these make the chances of a major new wave coming in the next few months down,” he explained.
“Newer versions could potentially still present a challenge. Any new variant that spreads more easily, especially among people who have been vaccinated or previously infected, could spark new surges.” .
Hopefully, he said, India will never see a wave again on the April-June 2021 scale, although there may be some increase in transmission during the festive season.
Jamil agreed. A major third wave is unlikely unless a new variant emerges that survives the existing immunity and spreads rapidly but small localized growth can be expected after Diwali such as in West Bengal after Durga Puja. took place in
In his view, the focus should be on ensuring that all people with one dose get the second dose early.
He said that while the 100 crore vaccination milestone is an achievement for any country, India also has a huge population and many are yet to be vaccinated.
According to data from the Co-Win portal, more than 71 crore vaccine doses were administered as the first dose and over 29 crore doses as the second dose. More than 75 percent of India’s adult population has received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine and more than 31 percent of the country’s approximately 93 million adults have received both doses.
Banji said that as long as there are vulnerable people, for example those who live without vaccination, or who have weakened immune systems, a large increase would mean more deaths.
“For these reasons, local authorities should plan how to keep transmission down for the foreseeable future.”
“Children need to go to school, and people need to work and earn a living. But there are a lot of measures that reduce the risk without stopping life, ”emphasized the scientist.
Terming the expansion of vaccination coverage as a “huge success”, Laxminarayan said this one measure alone would contribute to India being less vulnerable to Covid than many other countries.
“Official figures show only a small part of the picture. We know that the recorded cases are a small fraction of the infections, and the recorded COVID-19 deaths are a small fraction of the total pandemic deaths,” Banaji said.
“What is worrying is that surveillance is so poor in some parts of the country that if a new surge begins we may not see it in official figures,” he said.
The scientist said it is very important to encourage transparency and better surveillance, placing states like Kerala and Maharashtra as examples of better surveillance rather than criticizing them for their high numbers.
.