Washington: It has been estimated that disruptions in crop production due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could result in increased carbon emissions and food costs globally without reducing food insecurity, according to research.
New research published this week by Jerome Dumortier, associate professor in the O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs at IUPUI, and his co-authors uses economic simulation models to predict the short- and long-term effects of war on climate. change, crop prices, and food shortages.
The study found that the effects of the war on crop production and exports in Ukraine and Russia will continue to increase world food prices and food insecurity, but not as much as initially feared – largely because other countries have increased their production. . Researchers estimate that we could see an increase in corn and wheat prices by up to 4.6 per cent and 7.2 per cent, respectively. He also considered the prices of crops such as barley, rice, soybeans, sunflower and wheat, which are predicted to rise.
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Nations already facing significant food insecurity will be most affected, he estimates. “There was a lot of concern about food insecurity globally when the war first started in Ukraine,” Dumortier said.
“Our research shows that while this will continue to impact global supply chains, the impact on food shortages will not be as bad as we initially thought. Much of this is because other countries have been producing those crops and exporting What is Ukraine not sending?
However, filling that production gap will have an impact on the global climate, Dumortier said. Other countries, such as Brazil, may clear land and vegetation to produce more crops for production and export, slowed by the war.
The study found that Brazil is increasing its corn production to compensate for Ukraine’s decline in corn exports. The researchers found that changes in land use around the world will have a significant environmental impact, as other countries increase carbon emissions from land-use change and contribute more to deforestation.
“The Russia-Ukraine grain agreement was a positive development in the summer, but the situation in Ukraine is uncertain,” Dumortier said. “We recommend that governments consider policies that help vulnerable populations, such as reduction or elimination of domestic food subsidies and trade restrictions. Future climate change impacts can also be mitigated by unrestricted trade, may allow a shift of comparative advantage across countries.”