CSDS-Public Policy Survey | A month before the elections, what is on the minds of the voters of Gujarat?

When Narendra Modi entered the national political arena in 2013-14, he was portrayed as the mascot of the Gujarat model of development. Now, almost a decade later, do the memories of that model resonate with the Gujarati voter? As the assembly elections are approaching, do the voters of Gujarat still take pride in that memory?

primary concerns

The recent survey of governance and development in the state by Lokniti-Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) clearly brings to the fore the real economic plight of the people rather than the mere symbolism of the Gujarat model. In response to an open-ended question (where answers were not provided), two-thirds of voters automatically mentioned two issues they would consider at the time of voting: price rise and unemployment. Among them, price hike was the more commonly listed issue with more than half of the respondents mentioning it.

Five years ago, when the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won the assembly elections, even after Mr Modi moved to Delhi, only one in seven had cited price rise as the main issue. In fact, in 2017, there was a far greater lack of focus in voter perception (Table 1). Today, half of the voters mentioned price rise and another 15% mentioned unemployment, with 6% also mentioning poverty as an issue. This tally of issues related to the economy leads to more than seven out of 10 respondents. Thus, there is every possibility that the ruling party in the state will have a lot to offer to the voters on the economic condition of the state in the coming elections.

While it is not uncommon for voters to mention unemployment and/or poverty as their main issues, the current concern over price increases in some other states in the recent elections far outweighs similar concerns (Table 2). . This concern is felt almost equally among most sections of the Gujarati society. Half of urban respondents mentioned the issue and more than half from rural areas talked about it.

How this concern emerges during the campaign and what it means when voters finally vote is another question. To induce voters to forget their main concern about the economy will require extraordinary political acumen for the BJP, such as innovative strategies by the opposition to convince voters that the ruling party is the best for the economic situation. Is responsible. Evidence from the last few elections shows that the opposition has failed in its efforts to blame the ruling party for both inflation and unemployment, and to convince voters for the same.

Two subtexts are likely to interfere in this apparently straightforward tale of the economy engulfing the ruling party. One, while voters instinctively think about price hikes, much will depend on the menu of issues that will be introduced through the campaign. As Table 3 shows, apart from the economy, there is considerable significance to the idea of ​​’change’ when it is projected as one of the specific issues during this election. However, Hindutva also appeals to half the respondents as an election issue.

The second subtext is that the overall assessment of state government performance and reporting on the benefits of various schemes to voters is robust. The ruling party may therefore choose to focus on performance to allay potentially negative perceptions about the economy.

an important question

These subtexts lead to an important question. When it comes to making choices on Election Day, what are the various factors that influence voters’ choices? While polls have repeatedly indicated that price hikes and unemployment are the most important issues on voters’ minds, do they choose to stick to their core sentiment about the economy or do elections become more complex with socio-political interventions and issues. go. a front seat? Do economic factors matter to the common man, but take a back seat on election day as there are other priorities that determine electoral choices?

The answer to this question will to a large extent decide the direction of voters’ choice in Gujarat.

a note on methodology

Suhas Palshikar taught Political Science and is the Editor-in-Chief of Studies in Indian Politics; Sandeep Shastri is the Vice Chancellor and National Coordinator of Lokniti Network at Jagran Lakecity University, Bhopal; and Sanjay Kumar is Professor and Co-Director of Lokniti-CSDS