India’s overall death rate held steady in 2020, even as male and female mortality rates rise
India’s overall death rate held steady in 2020, even as male and female mortality rates rise
Counting the dead is a difficult task, especially in India. The country accounts for about 17% of the worldwide deaths, but still does not have a system that can accurately calculate the number of deaths. when Citizen Registration System (CRS) And the Sample Registration System (SRS) measures mortality, both of which have their limitations.
CRS is the record of important events like birth, death and stillbirth at the place of occurrence. But not all deaths are registered in India and a significant number have been recorded beyond the stipulated time limit of 21 days. The SRS is a large-scale survey that provides an estimate of the death rate or number of deaths per 1,000 population. While the SRS is considered more reliable, the report noted that in many states, registered deaths exceed the estimates provided by the SRS.
The release of the SRS Statistical Report 2020 in September has again raised questions about India’s mortality estimates. The report said that the death rate in 2020 was 6.0 per 1,000. In a year affected by the pandemic, the estimated death rate remained unchanged from 6.0 in 2019.
In contrast, the CRS showed that India had an estimated 8.2 lakh . Were more deaths The excess deaths in 2020 were calculated as the difference between the deaths registered in 2020 and the average number of deaths recorded in 2018 and 2019. The deaths were 5.5 times the number of official COVID-19 deaths recorded in 2020. Table 1 Lists the state-wise average number of registered deaths in 2018 and 2019, deaths in 2020, excess deaths, official COVID-19 deaths and the undercount factor for 2020. States like Bihar, Maharashtra and West Bengal had a higher burden of mortality. But when compared to the official COVID-19 toll, Bihar, Assam and Madhya Pradesh had the highest undercount factor. There are also problems with CRS numbers – some states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have historically lower registration rates than other states. In Uttar Pradesh, in particular, there was a sudden drop in deaths recorded in 2020.
The average number of deaths and deaths recorded in 2020 is in lakhs. UF stands for Undercount Factor. Mah means Maharashtra, Ch means Chhattisgarh and Jha means Jharkhand.
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While the CRS shows a higher mortality rate, the SRS, which is also used to assess the completeness of registration in the CRS, failed to capture this despite an increase in mortality rates for males and females. According to SRS’s ‘Table 13: Annual Estimates of Mortality Rates by Gender, India and Large States/Union Territories, 2015-20’, the mortality rate in 2020 increased from 6.5 to 6.6 for males and from 5.0 to 5.4 for females. happened. However, the overall death rate stood at 6.0. Similar discrepancies were observed in states like Madhya Pradesh, Assam and Himachal Pradesh. All three recorded a decline in the overall death rate in 2020, even as men and women saw an increase in mortality. For example, in Himachal Pradesh, the death rate for males increased from 7.1 to 8.1 and for females, it increased from 3.9 to 5.5, but in 2020 the overall death rate decreased from 6.9 to 6.8. In Karnataka, the death rate also remained stable. Because there has been a significant increase in female mortality in 2020. Table 2 Shows the state-wise total, male and female mortality rates in 2019 and 2020.
DR in the table means mortality
The second apparent discrepancy lies in the SRS’s estimate of female mortality in 2020. While the figures in the detailed table on page 301 show an increase, a chart on page ‘xxii’ shows that the female mortality rate has declined in 2020. chart 3, Which shows the total, male and female mortality, is a replica of the chart presented in the report.
Discrepancies in the death estimates provided by the report call into question the accuracy and quality of the SRS report and further complicate the exercise of estimating the death toll from COVID-19.
nihalani.j@thehindu.co.in
Source: SRS Statistical Report 2020
Following the publication of this article in the October 4, 2022 edition, a reader pointed out that the discrepancy (increased mortality for men and women but decline in overall mortality) was due to an error in the 2019 published figures. The Hindu data team has also independently corroborated this claim from the SRS report. Table number 13, which provides mortality rates by gender for India and larger states for the period 2015-20, used incorrect data for 2019. Rural and Urban Mortality Rates as provided in ‘Table No. 8’ (Table mentioning age-specific death rates by gender and residence) are related to Male and Female Mortality Rates in the 2019 Report (page 268 onwards). location, when year-wise mortality was summarized in Table No. However, the figures for 2020 appear to be correct.
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