Extreme heat in Punjab and rise in local prices could potentially affect India’s wheat exports this year
Extreme heat in Punjab and rise in local prices could potentially affect India’s wheat exports this year
At a time when India is looking to replenish the world’s wheat reserves destroyed by the Ukraine-Russia war, two new developments could potentially happen in Punjab. reduce its exports This year’s level. Firstly, evidence from Punjab shows that wheat arrivals in mandis have been 20% less this year as compared to 2021. The primary reason behind the shortage is the extreme level. Warmth, The average temperature in April across Punjab has been consistently above 40 degree Celsius. Due to this, there has been a significant reduction in the yield of wheat this year. Secondly, local prices of wheat and wheat flour are picking up. These two factors could affect India’s wheat export plans, as India may prioritize local availability of wheat, aiming to cool market prices.
wheat arrival
, The chart shows the arrival of wheat in the mandis of Punjab in the first twenty days of the 2021 and 2022 seasons. During this period, 73 lakh metric tonnes of wheat reached the mandis in 2022, 20% less than the 92.4 lakh recorded in 2021
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rising prices
The chart shows the wholesale inflation of wheat and consumer inflation of wheat flour in India. Wholesale inflation stood at over 14% and retail inflation at 7.77% in March 2022, both the highest since April 2017
heat map
The map shows temperature anomaly across Punjab between April 8 and 14 as compared to the long period average. Maximum temperature was 6 degree Celsius above normal at most places
drop in yield
Harvesting experiments show that due to scorching heat, wheat yields have declined in the state this year. The productivity of wheat last year was 19.7 quintal per acre, whereas this year the average yield is less than 18 quintal per acre. However, only 1,200 out of 2,000 harvesting experiments have been completed so far.
Source: Punjab Mandi Board, MoSPI, IMD Chandigarh, Punjab Agriculture Department
Also read: Explained | Why is India promoting wheat exports?