Dealing with the Indo-Pacific is not easy

US President Joseph Biden cannot forget his recent five-day visit to Asia. Hours after leaving for the US, North Korea test-fired three ballistic missiles while the country is plagued by a ‘fever’. Japan’s Defense Minister said Chinese and Russian fighter jets made joint flights over the Sea of ​​Japan and the East China Sea May 24 as the leaders of the Quad met in Tokyo. And when Air Force One landed in America, Mr. Biden became a witness to a subsequent dispute between Republicans and Democrats on gun control legislation. Shooting at an elementary school in Texas Which took the lives of 21 people, out of which 19 were children.

Biden’s Asian Tour

Yet the outcome of the Asian visit could not have been better in the assessment of the Biden White House. The new conservative South Korean government showed a willingness to turn the heat on North Korea and said it would also expand the presence of a US missile defense system in the country, which previously angered China. In Japan, the administration promised them it was ready to eliminate its long-standing 1% GDP limit for annual defense spending.

Against the backdrop of growing concern over Chinese military activity in the region, Mr Biden told a news conference that the US would intervene militarily to defend Taiwan if it was attacked by China. The jury is still out on whether this unusually forceful statement by the president was a mistake or a well-intentioned response. In any event, the president and members of his delegation immediately withdrew and clarified that there was no change in the essence of US foreign policy, which is still governed by the Taiwan Relations Act. According to a 1979 congressional law, the United States “will provide Taiwan with weapons of a defensive character” in order to defend the region; The law states that the US is not required to act militarily to defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion by China. But Mr Biden amused some in the region, even though the primary purpose of his visit was not to clear up ‘strategic ambiguity’.

It is no secret that the Indo-Pacific region has been under pressure and East Asia, in particular, has been hit by frequent storms. South Korea and Japan face regular nuclear and missile threats from North Korea. China not only challenges international maritime laws in the South China Sea, but also confronts Japan over the Senkaku Islands. Six nations, including China and Taiwan, are involved in the dispute over the Spratly Islands, which are believed to be sitting on vast reserves of oil and natural gas. China has vigorously militarized parts of disputed islands, islets and coral reefs; And countries like Vietnam and the Philippines are eager not to be left behind.

IPEF Framework

The discussion in the Indo-Pacific that President Biden wanted to emphasize was China. Almost every single nation in this part of the world recognizes Beijing’s assertiveness and aggression, which is seen as a willingness to be at the center of things and on its terms, but few have been able to come up with a strategy to deal with it. . China. And there’s a way the Biden administration has tried to set it up An Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) Along with Australia, Brunei, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. IPEF will work on fixing four key pillars: standards and rules for digital trade; flexible supply chain; green energy commitments; and fair trade.

editorial | Caution and Clarity: On the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity

But while the first indications are that the IPEF may be a good idea, there is dissatisfaction that the framework does not address the issues of trade and tariffs. The Biden administration will not want to touch it with barge polls, especially with the midterm election barely five months away. “I think what America has to offer, and the only thing America has to offer, is money. Whatever, I think, will be forthcoming, especially for clean energy, maybe some supply chain flexibility. And for anti-corruption,” said Brian Mercurio, professor of law and trade at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. “But of course, what the Asian partners really want is trade. I think they want market access. And the business component of IPEF is really lacking.”

There are two aspects to the Asia-Pacific/Indo-Pacific that any Washington administration should pay attention to. One is that China’s neighbors would prefer to balance the relationship between Washington and Beijing. But as Michael Schumann said in a piece the AtlanticThe message to Chinese President Xi Jinping should be loud and clear: “Just as in Europe, where Vladimir Putin’s aggression against him is uniting the rest of the region, in Asia an aggressive China is infiltrating, not weakening, American power.” “

On the other hand, which countries in the region would like to get on the anti-China bandwagon, economic or strategic. Whether it is in East, Southeast or South Asia, each country has its own unique relationship with Beijing. South Korea and Japan are part of a strong US security/strategic partnership, but would be willing to maintain their economic position with China. This is also true for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. India may be part of the Quad, but is quite conscious that it is the only country in the grouping that shares a land border with China that has been marred by disputes.

a difficult task

It is useful to remember what Singapore’s Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said at the International Conference on the Future of Asia in Tokyo on 26 May: “In response to geopolitical tensions, countries have focused on economic gains from free resilience and national security.” Trade and investment flow, but they must be very careful to take extreme measures before conflicts arise, whether to isolate themselves from global supply chains and strive for reshoring Or go for “friend-shoring” and cutting off countries that are not allies or friends… Such actions closed the way for regional development and cooperation, deepening divisions between countries. , and may intensify the conflicts we all hope to avoid”.

Comment | deepen strategic commitment

For all the difficult talks either before the bilateral talks or at the time of the Quad summit, the four leaders of the Quad did not mention Russia or China in the joint statement, as each of them understands the sensitivity. Furthermore, President Biden is sensitive and aware of the irregularities of US lawmakers. As it is, foreign policy has little traction and with Democrats expected to do poorly on November 8, legislation specifically related to funding for external initiatives is going to be a daunting task.

Sridhar Krishnaswamy is a former senior journalist in Washington who covered North America and the United Nations