A visual of the protest by CPI(M) workers. file | Photo credit: V. Raju
a A few days ago, the CPI(M) opposed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Andhra Pradesh. In August, at the CPI National Congress held in Vijayawada, leaders of the CPI and CPI(M) discussed the need to wage a united struggle against Left unity and other political forces. The CPI has also set a target of becoming a ‘million member’ party by next year. These are lofty goals but seem especially difficult to accomplish given the decline and fall of the Left in Andhra Pradesh over the past few decades.
In the first two general elections in undivided Andhra Pradesh, the Communists were the largest force followed by the Congress. In 1983, the Left had an opportunity to grab power in the state when the anti-Congress wave was strong. The Left parties were successful in bringing all the non-Congress parties including the Janata Party on a single platform. The formation of a Left-led government was almost imminent but for the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), established only nine months earlier as an alternative to the Congress hegemony.
The Left could have cashed in on the anti-Congress wave, but failed to realize the charismatic NT Rama Rao’s influence on the electorate. Much to the distrust of the Left-led coalition and the ruling Congress, the new regional party captured Congress strongholds and won 202 out of 294 seats, while the Congress was reduced to only 60. CPI(M) won five, CPI won. Four, and the BJP, three.
In subsequent elections – from 1985 to 1999 – the Left forged an alliance with the TDP. The TDP gradually ate into the vote base of the Left in its bastions right under the noses of the Left. But the Left parties have not realized that their workers and sympathizers are shifting their loyalties towards the regional party. By some estimates, around 20% of the cadre and over 50% of sympathizers had crossed over to the TDP by the time the problem was identified by the CPI(M) in 1997. The issue was discussed in the CPI(M) convention, but the corrective measures taken to recall and retain Aadhaar are yet to yield results. Leaders of the Left agree that alliances with other political parties, especially regional parties, have reduced their vote share.
Since the formation of the TDP, except on a few occasions, the Left continued to form alliances with one party or the other. In 1999, the Left parties contested as independents and the TDP forged an alliance with the BJP. Again in 2014, CPI and CPI(M) fielded former Chief Minister of undivided Andhra Pradesh N. Planned to join hands with the Jai Samaikya Andhra Party formed by Kiran Kumar Reddy, but this did not materialise. In both these cases, the CPI and the CPI(M) contested the elections independently. In 2004, the Left forged an alliance with the Congress. In 2009, she again moved in with the TDP after it parted ways with the BJP.
The fact today is that the Left is on the decline in Andhra Pradesh. The Left parties have no representation in the Andhra Pradesh Legislative Assembly. Ever since that spectacular defeat followed by a glimmer of hope in 1983, the Left has struggled to retain and strengthen its voter base. The combined vote share of CPI and CPI(M) was around 6% before the alliance of Left parties with TDP. By 1999 it had fallen to about 4%. Now, it is only 2.5%.
As the Left parties have had a hand all these years, with which parties will they go in the 2024 general elections? The political scenario in Andhra Pradesh is volatile today. The TDP is apparently keen to join hands with actor-turned-politician Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party (JSP) or the BJP. In the current situation, the BJP-JSP alliance is intact. This was evident when Mr Kalyan met Mr Modi a few days ago amid discussions of tensions over the three-year-old alliance.
Though they talk of being united, the CPI and the CPI(M) are clearly not on the same page as far as electoral alliances are concerned. Party sources say the CPI is determined to win at least one assembly seat and TDP national president N. Maintains good relations with Chandrababu Naidu. Sources say that for the CPI(M), it is important to strengthen the party cadre, gain sympathy and expand the voter base rather than winning a few seats.
The Left has failed to increase its voter base through alliances. It has also been unable to mobilize people ideologically, offer a credible alternative, understand caste dynamics or appeal to its traditional voter base. Opposing Mr. Modi’s visit will not help the Left; It needs to do a lot more than just protest and posturing.