In a notification to the US Congress last week, the State Department announced what it calls a “foreign military sale” to Pakistan for F-16 “subsistence” – essentially a $450 million upgrade and maintenance. The proposed sale is clearly intended to “allow Pakistan to maintain interoperability with US and allied forces in its ongoing counter-terrorism efforts and in preparation for future contingency operations”.
For each of the three big powers in the region—the US, China and India—there are many dynamics at play here.
For the US, the sale is the first major US security aid to Pakistan since the Donald Trump administration halted such aid in 2018 on the grounds that Islamabad was not really an honest participant in America’s fight against terrorism.
So what has prompted the Joe Biden administration to backfire? It is hard to avoid the conclusion that this—and possibly other future moves—are equally supportive of Pakistani aid in locating and eliminating al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri.
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In this sense, counter-terrorism is certainly central to the US move and suggests that Pakistan remains a valuable partner for the US in such efforts. It’s another reminder that if Americans needed to withdraw from Afghanistan without achieving their objectives of making America safe from terrorism, it’s another reminder.
At the same time, the US statement emphasized that the deal “does not include new capabilities, weapons or munitions” hinting at the limits of future US-Pakistan relations.
This shows that US action cannot be expected to pull Pakistan away from the Chinese orbit. While the Pakistani military establishment has a preference for US weapons, Beijing has cleverly made up for its lack of weapons quality, diversity of weapons platforms, and deep military diplomacy.
China has invested in transforming its relationship with Pakistan from a mere relationship with the political and military elite to one that now includes increasingly macroeconomic, developmental and people-to-people ties. Conversely, despite decades of involvement in Pakistan, Americans have never been able to change their image on the Pakistani street of an exploitative, infidel power.
US sales – defended as “a safety and maintenance program” – therefore, it appears that Pakistanis are having their cake and eating it too, while India is holding the short end of the stick.
The US, which New Delhi sees as a partner, is helping to refurbish a Pakistani weapons platform, tasked primarily with conducting operations against India; F-16s were also used in the February 2019 Balakot clash. To add insult to injury, the announcement came amid bilateral 2+2 meetings between delegations from the respective Defense and External Affairs ministries in New Delhi along with the Quad Senior Officers’ Meeting.
Indian officials are said to have opposed the decision at “every” bilateral meeting with the Americans last week. But New Delhi should be careful not to protest too much.
At one level, the US claim that the proposed sale to Pakistan “would not change the basic military balance in the region” is correct. This is for at least two reasons. One, it doesn’t matter all-weather relations between Pakistan and China, one of India’s adversaries. Second, if the mere refurbishment of Pakistani F-16s can upset the military balance, it only confirms the Indian Air Force’s combat capability with a less than satisfactory situation. Not so American then but India’s own ham-handed approach to modernizing and enhancing the capabilities of the Indian Air Force that would account for any altered military balance.
On another level, it should not be surprising that America will do what is in its best interest just as Indians will do what is in their best interest. For example, New Delhi has continued diplomatic and commercial engagement with Russia over US objections and has also decided to stay out of the trade agreement of the US-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
If India seeks leadership in this area, it must take the responsibility of driving and shaping relations, including Pakistan, on itself, and not just lament what others do.
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