Lokniti-CSDS survey looks at populist promises and their impact on Gujarat voters
Lokniti-CSDS survey looks at populist promises and their impact on Gujarat voters
Populist policies in Gujarat have been a part of the electoral fervor for several decades. In the 1990s, the Narmada through the Sardar Sarovar Dam was a part of much of the election campaigns of both the Congress and the BJP as the Jivdori (lifeline) of Gujarat. In 2012, the Congress’s Ghar Nu Ghar scheme, where the party promised to provide affordable housing for the urban poor and rural residents if voted to power, made thousands of women queue up to register for the housing scheme ahead of elections.
Today, the scenario has changed in the election contest as there is a third party on the ground which attracts voters with promises of free electricity, free education, jobs for youth and corruption free Gujarat. In Gujarat, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is campaigning on populist policies based on its model, especially in Delhi and Punjab, focusing on subsidies and free electricity and education. The BJP, too, has been seeking voters’ support in the state based on what it projects as its good record on national policies and good governance for over two decades. Congress has also included populist schemes in its agenda.
The Lokniti-CSDS survey tried to look at these populist promises and their impact on the voters of Gujarat. Nearly half of the respondents believe that populist policies are necessary to provide relief to the common people (Table 1). The interesting thing is that most of those who believe in this opinion are BJP voters. Two-thirds of the people who thought these populist policies were bad for the economy are also supporters of the BJP. Thus, the BJP’s support base is divided on the impact of populist policies.
Your vigorous campaign revolves around price increases and the need to introduce a new player. It is important to underline the fact that of those who felt that populist policies were necessary to provide relief to the common people, nearly one-fourth supported the AAP and one-fourth supported the Congress (Table 1). .
An interesting pattern emerges when we look at the educational background of the respondents and their response to populist policies. With greater access to education, support for providing relief to the common people through populist measures grows. The trend clearly indicates that populist policies are finding support among people with higher levels of education and urban respondents.
Media is certainly one of the main means for political parties to communicate with voters. It is clear that with increased media exposure, opinion on populist policies becomes more clear (Table 3). Post COVID-19, in times of inflation, populist politics played by political parties seems to be a key factor in the coming Gujarat elections.
Mahasweta Jani is Gujarat’s state coordinator for Lokniti-CSDS