Dollar index for US retail sales: Top 5 stock market triggers to watch next week

stock market next week The Indian stock market ended last week on a positive note in all four trading sessions, driven by ‘mildly bullish’ speculations by the US Fed on India’s inflation hitting a 5-month low and a hike in interest rates. The NSE Nifty closed in the green for the seventh consecutive week, rising from a low of 15,183 to touch 17,698. On a weekly basis, the Nifty 50 index closed 1.73 per cent higher, while the BSE Sensex closed at 58,387 with a weekly gain of 1.42 per cent.

Commenting on the stock market outlook for the short term, Anuj Gupta, Vice President of Research at IIFL Securities said, “India’s retail inflation, which is measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to a 5-month low of 6.71 per cent in the month of July, from 7.01 per cent in June. Separately, India’s factory output, measured through the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), saw a rise of 12.3 per cent in June, showed two separate data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MoSPI) on Friday. Lower crude oil prices and recovery in commodity prices is a major contributor to the recovery.”

Terming this as a positive sign for the Indian stock market, Anuj Gupta said, “We are expecting the Sensex to test the level of 60000 to 61000 and Nifty may test the level of 18000 to 18500. The index may move further.”

“Domestic markets maintained their northward movement during the week and closed in the green for the fourth consecutive week. Nifty spot reclaimed 17700 mark after April 2022. Sentiment remained upbeat mainly on the back of positive global cues. Improvement in the US markets with FIIs becoming buyers in the cash segment again forced the bulls to dominate,” said Mehul Kothari, AVP – Technical Research at Anand Rathi.

Here we are listing the top 5 triggers that can affect the stock market next week:

1]Dollar Index: “After sliding below the level of 105, the dollar index has formed a strong base at the level of 104.50. However, it has broken the previous support of 105 which indicates further weakness in the US dollar against major currencies across the world. “A further fall in the dollar index will be positive news for the Indian stock market,” said Anuj Gupta, IIFL Securities, especially after the easing of US inflation numbers.

2]US Retail Sales: Anuj Gupta said, “The US retail sales data is expected to be released in the FOMC meeting on August 17, 2022. These data will give further insight into the US economy and hence Dalal Street investors are advised to check this data next week on August 17,” said Anuj Gupta. Keep an eye on the release.” Told.

3]FII DII Data: “FIIs have turned out to be surprising buyers in August, and many expect the FII sell-off to end and the market to start buying. Of course, FII buying will depend on US inflation and other global data, but FIIs Depends on the buying pattern of Rs. Watching is the most important thing,” said Sonam Srivastava, Founder, Wright Research.

4]Commodity Prices: “Crude oil has cooled to $92 a barrel, and the effect has been seen in moderating inflation in the US and India. Similarly, metal prices are low, making commodity consumers happy, but geopolitical. Looking at the environment, you never know when the prices will start rising again. So commodity prices will be an important trigger to watch,” said Sonam Srivastava.

5]Geopolitical Tension: While the Ukraine-Russia conflict remains a significant cause of concern for the world, new tensions between the US-China-Taiwan have also raised concerns for the market. Hence, progress in both the geopolitical woes will be a major trigger for the market.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given above are those of individual analysts or broking companies and not of Mint.

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