An election victory by the incumbent government is often seen as an endorsement of the work done by it. Any uneasiness among the people on various issues of governance goes unnoticed when the government is re-elected. In the past too, governments have been re-elected after performing well and thrown out of power when they performed poorly. The government’s performance on economic issues has been crucial to being re-elected or defeated. But the assembly elections in five Indian states earlier this year indicate a different pattern. Despite people’s critical views on inflation and unemployment, the governments of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) retained power in all the four states under their rule. These decisions point to a new trend in Indian electoral politics: electoral victories should not always be interpreted as an endorsement of the work done by the current administration.
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Of the five states where elections were held, the BJP retained its government in four, with the Congress party losing power to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in Punjab. Although the BJP’s number of assembly seats decreased in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Uttarakhand and slightly increased in Goa and Manipur, India’s ruling party registered a solid victory overall. The BJP (and its allies) won 47 out of 70 assembly seats in Uttarakhand and 273 out of 403 assembly seats in UP.
Although the BJP’s number of seats in UP has come down, its increased vote share in 2022 as compared to 2017 is a sign of growth in the party’s support base over the past five years. BJP’s vote share also increased in Manipur, but declined marginally in these smaller states compared to the last assembly elections in Uttarakhand and Goa. BJP got 43.8% of the total valid votes in UP and 44.3% in Uttarakhand. In Manipur, it got 37.8% of the votes, while in Goa in a multi-cornered contest, it got 33.3% of the total valid votes polled in the elections held this year.
However, the results may not reveal much about perceptions of the performance of a current government. The findings of a post-poll survey conducted by Pollster Lokniti jointly with the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) show great unease among people about rising unemployment. Jobs are hard to find. The survey findings indicate that in all the five states where elections were held recently, there is a popular view that people are facing the problem of unemployment and job loss. Data from the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) shows that the unemployment rate in India was around 5.5% for a long time (1991-2019), but unemployment has increased over the years. The latest CMIE readings indicate that India’s employment rate as on 17 May 2022 was around 7.3% on a 30-day moving average basis. The data collected by the Lokniti-CSDS survey therefore supports what is commonly understood about the job problem in India. As indicated by the survey findings, in all five states, a vast majority (over 80%) say they believe unemployment has risen, while very few disagree (table above). has data for four states).
The survey results also confirm the kind of problems people are facing due to retail inflation. Today, it is widely known that the prices of essential commodities are rising, especially the prices of petrol, diesel, cooking gas and various food items, which seem to be reaching sky high levels. A recent report shows rising wheat prices across the country. flour, or coarsely ground wheat, sold here 15 per kg in 2010, increased to . happened 33 per kg in April 2022. The survey was done ahead of India’s official Consumer Price Index (CPI), which saw a jump in retail price levels in April, but price hikes were a problem long ago. As picked by Lokniti-CSDS survey, over 80% people feel the pinch of price hike and agree that prices have increased during the last five years, while only a small part of the respondents disagree (as seen in the table).
Previously, people’s opinion on the performance of governments, especially on day-to-day issues such as price rise and unemployment, had a fairly direct impact on their political choices. Almost certainly, the ruling party will lose the election after its government gets such a negative rating on economic issues, but this trend is no longer true. People have re-elected the ruling party in spite of their inflation hit.
The 2022 round of state elections was the first in the backdrop of over a year-long farmer protests against three agriculture laws passed by the Centre. There is enough evidence to suggest that farmers have not only been critical of these laws (withdrawn before the elections), but the Center in particular tried to deal with farmers during the agitation. The survey findings suggest that not only farmers, but also people from different sectors of employment see the condition of farmers as getting worse in five years. This opinion is shared by a large number in UP, where 42% say they believe the condition of farmers has worsened, while 24% hold the opposite view. Goa is not an agrarian state, so it shows little concern, but a large number of people in Uttarakhand and Punjab share the view that the condition of farmers has worsened.
The BJP was re-elected in four states, but public opinion on the performance of its four state governments, especially on three issues – price rise, unemployment and the condition of farmers – has been largely negative. This forces us to think deeply: is the re-election of an incumbent party necessarily an endorsement of the work done by its government? The evidence shows that no.
These are personal views of the author.
Sanjay Kumar is a political analyst and professor at the Center for the Study of Developing Societies.