explained | How is the energy crisis shaping up in Europe?

the story So Far: As winter approaches, Europe is facing an energy problem. Several leaks – apparently caused by explosions – have choked supplies to Nord Stream 1, an energy pipeline connecting Russia to Germany. Amid concerns about building up energy reserves, the gas field in Groningen, Netherlands, has once again hit the headlines.

Why is this gas field relevant?

There is a gas field in the Netherlands in the area of ​​Groningen which started operations in 1963. During the 1980s, the region experienced several earthquakes – minor enough to avoid major damage but enough to develop cracks in local buildings. Following these earthquakes, the Dutch government had previously stated that it would close the grounds in response to local protests. The closing date was also extended from 2030 to 2022.

However, due to recent geopolitical tensions, the Dutch government wants to keep options open. In a statement, the Dutch government said in June that “the cabinet would like to be in a position to close the Groningen gas field in 2023, as it is the only way to restore safety in Groningen and reassure residents for a long time to run.” However, uncertain geopolitical developments have prompted the Mining Minister to refrain from permanently closing any wells this year.” a bloomberg Reports earlier this month said that if allowed, additional supplies from the region could go up to the level that Germany imported from Russia last year. It said the field still has the potential to extract about 450 billion cubic meters (BCM) of gas.

Could the discovery of oil or gas cause earthquakes?

Hindu Spoke to professors specializing in both geophysics and geology at IIT-ISM (Indian School of Mines). Pro. Rajeev Upadhyay, Prof. Saurabh Dutta Gupta, and Prof. Mohit Agarwal agrees that man-made or induced earthquakes can be very damaging. Examples of human activity that can lead to ‘induced seismicity’ are the damming of rivers to create reservoirs, oil or gas extraction, and mining.

To enhance energy extraction, wastewater, sand and chemicals are injected into the earth under high pressure to create fractures in the rocks. This process, called “hydraulic fracturing”, helps improve the interconnectivity of pores to enhance oil and gas extraction. In some cases, fluid is injected into holes attached to the fault which can increase the orifice pressure within the fault substantially to counteract the effective frictional forces. This can cause earthquakes. In addition, fluid injection (water flooding) into a hydrocarbon reservoir (reefs that contain hydrocarbons that are oil and gas) is a common operation for the purpose of increased oil recovery. Flooding of water through injection wells increases the pressure in hydrocarbon reservoirs, reducing the effective normal stress in the reservoir rocks. Sometimes this lack of effective stresses causes existing natural fractures to shift towards the critically stressed fracture window leading to induced seismicity. A small section of these injection wells have induced earthquakes which has raised concerns.

Fluid extraction from hydrocarbon reservoirs causes an increase in net effective stresses, which, when supported by the geomechanics of the rock, can lead to the development of new faults and fractures. In the case of Groningen, the depletion of the land has been due to extraction alone over many years. Such extraction causes the rocks to shrink – as fewer and fewer hydrocarbons accumulate in the pores over time.

The professors pointed to a devastating 6.5-magnitude earthquake in Maharashtra’s Koynanagar, which occurred in December 1967, killing at least 177 people and injuring over 2,200. The general consensus among seismologists was that this was due to reservoir-induced seismicity, where the weight of the water column potentially changed the stress on an underlying fault/fracture, resulting in the earthquake.

Don’t the major gas suppliers in the US or Russia have such a problem?

There are many places in the US where hydraulic fracturing has induced seismicity, the professor explains. The largest earthquake known to be driven by wastewater disposal was a M5.8 earthquake that occurred near Pawnee, Oklahoma (USA) in 2016. According to the United States Geological Survey, Oklahoma has had four earthquakes of magnitude 5+, three of which occurred in 2016. In 2011, a magnitude 5.3 earthquake was triggered by fluid injection in Raton Basin, Colorado.

Earthquakes caused by fluid extraction need not occur at every location where extraction is observed. The geomechanical properties of the rock in question determine the result. The response of rocks to stress can be different.

Should India be worried about gas in the Netherlands?

The domestic gas price of India is determined by the average of four global indices namely Henry Hub of US, National Equilibrium Point of UK, Alberta of Canada and Russian gas. Compared to pre-pandemic times, the average home price of gas has more than doubled from $5.08/mmBtu to $11.62 and Sudhir Kumar, rating director at Care Edge, estimates it to rise again when the six-monthly reset is fixed. April-September 2023. India consumed around 63.9 BCM in FY22, which is about 3.1 BCM more than the previous year. At around 30 BCM, imports alone accounted for about 50% of the consumption. He says global production is projected to fall from 4,109 BCM in calendar 2021 to 4,089 BCM in 2022. Unless the formula for determining the domestic gas price is reviewed, the situation will become challenging for the government. Until then, the government has to bear the burden of higher subsidies on fertilizers – the manufacture of which uses natural gas – as well as for the LPG sector.

If supplies from Groningen increase, will gas prices fall?

Usha Ramachandra, Adjunct Professor, National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bangalore, says: “With winter coming, the demand for heating across Europe will be very high, so I do not see prices coming down in the short term. Currently “As gas supplies from Russia are affected, they are looking to West Asia and North Africa. New supplies within Europe will serve Europe first.”

They are of the view that as Europe is transitioning to clean energy, they do not want to be seen as an increase in “coal” sources, so currently the fuel of the day is natural gas for heating, hydrogen to support renewable energy integration, Initiatives for and Clean Transportation. “The only fuel price that can reduce, in my understanding, is that of coal … In any case, winter is to pass and it depends on how severe the winter will be. Britain has already spent three hours Have warned of load shedding, which has been unheard of since the 1970s, if they could remove more gas, they would.

However, Mr. Kumar’s opinion points to the fact that the current price increase is largely linked to supply constraints and “therefore any increase in supply will certainly correct prices.”