the story So Far: One year after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, signs of escalation are everywhere. The West has recently announced supplies of more advanced weapons to Ukraine, deepening its involvement in the conflict. In response, Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has already reinforced Russian positions with hundreds of thousands of troops along a 1,000 km-long border line in Ukraine, announced the suspension of his country’s participation in the New Start treaty, which Could trigger a nuclear arms race. , Ukraine, with a free flow of arms from the West, hopes to launch its own offensive to halt Russian advances and retake lost land. As the war escalates, the risks of a direct confrontation between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), the two nuclear powers, also grow.
What is the current status of the war?
Russia is expected to launch a new offensive in the coming days. Right now, there is fighting concentrated in a few flashpoints along the frontline. For more than seven months, PMC Wagner, a private Russian security force with close ties to the Kremlin, has been fighting to take Bakhmut, a town in Donetsk at the cross junction of several major arteries that lead to four Ukrainian regions. One of them, which was captured by Mr. Putin Last month in September, Wagner captured the salt mine town of Soledar on the outskirts of Bakhmut, and then several settlements around the town. As of now, the Russians control all major highways into Bakhmut except one (Chasiv Yar), which Ukrainian troops are using for reinforcements and re-supply.
The Russians opened two more fronts, one at Izyum northwest of Bakhmut in Kharkiv Oblast, and another at Vuhledar, south of Bakhmut in Donetsk. They are also pushing forward in Zaporizhia and positional fighting continues in Kherson. Ukraine is trying to hold on to these territories until more weapons and trained fighters arrive from the West. Main battle tanks pledged by the West, including the Leopard 2 (German), the M1 Abrams (American) and the Challenger 2 (British), will take a few more weeks to reach the battlefield.
Is Russia Losing the War?
The answer depends on how you look at conflict. Given the power asymmetry between Russia and Ukraine, Russian troops performed poorly on the battlefield. If one looks at Russia’s stated goals and what it has achieved in the 12 months of fighting, it is not difficult to see that they are still far from meeting those objectives. Some say Mr. Putin wanted to take Kiev and install a pro-Kremlin regime. Mr. Putin had said that demilitarization and Nazism were his main goals. Their commanders have been on record saying that Russia wants to take all of Ukraine east and south, meaning an area stretching from Kharkiv in the northeast to Odessa in the east through the Donbass (which includes Luhansk and Donetsk). Is. The Black Sea port city in the southwest is turning the country into a land-locked cauldron. Russia failed to fulfill any of these objectives.
But at the same time, war is raging inside Ukraine, and Russia has annexed substantial parts of Ukrainian territories, including Mariupol, the port city that was defended by the Azov Brigade, a neo-Nazi organization. which is integrated regularly. Ukrainian army. Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine peaked in March 2022, when it controlled about 22% of Ukraine’s pre-2014 territory. Since then, Ukraine annexed some land in Kharkiv and Kherson. But even so, Russia controls about 17% of Ukraine and Mr Putin also managed to secure a land bridge from mainland Russia to Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014, the Donbass and Zaporizhia. runs through. And with a new offensive, Russia plans to apply more pressure on Ukrainian troops, which also explains why the West is now sending more weapons to the battlefield.
Did the western strategy work?
The West’s approach has been two-pronged: punishing Russia’s economy through sanctions and thereby weakening its war machine, while preparing Ukraine to counter Russian aggression. Western support has played a key role in Ukrainian resistance and counter-offensive. The US is Ukraine’s largest aid provider – it has pledged more than $70 billion in military and financial aid. The EU has pledged $37 billion and among EU countries, the UK and Germany top the list. Last year, after Ukraine suffered a series of setbacks at Mariupol, Severodonetsk and Lisichansk, the US promised the delivery of its medium-range rocket systems, such as the HIMARS. The new weapons helped turn Ukraine into momentum, but Ukrainian gains solidified in December. Now, as Russia prepares for another offensive, the West is once again coming to Ukraine’s rescue, with more advanced weaponry, including missile defense systems, armored vehicles, tank killers, battle tanks and precision bombs . While the approach of arming Ukraine has at least been effective in stopping Russian advances, hurting Russia economically has been a double-edged sword.
Sanctions on Russia, one of the top global producers of oil and gas, have hit the global economy hard, worsening an inflationary crisis in the West, especially in Europe. Russia was also hit, but found alternative markets for its energy exports in Asia, reshaping the global energy export landscape. Last year, despite sanctions, Russia increased its oil production by 2% and oil export earnings by 20% to $218 billion. Russia also earned $138 billion from natural gas, up nearly 80% from 2021 – and this was despite European pressure from Russia to cut gas imports. The Russian economy was projected to contract by 2% in 2022, but, according to the IMF, it is expected to grow by 0.3% this year and 2.1% next year. In comparison, Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, is expected to grow 0.1% this year, while Britain, Ukraine’s second biggest supporter, is forecast to contract by 0.6%.
What is happening inside Ukraine?
The Russian invasion turned President Volodymyr Zelensky into the face of the Ukrainian resistance. Mr. Zelensky, a former television comedian, was grappling with a number of political challenges when the war began. His approval rating had dropped to 28% and his regime was accused of persecuting former President Petro Poroshenko on charges of treason. Corruption was rampant. In the Donbass, a civil war has been raging since 2014 between Russian-speaking separatists and Ukraine’s military, including neo-Nazi brigades. Hero to many. He promoted western opinion and aid. He also took advantage of this opportunity to strengthen his hold on power at home.
Eleven opposition parties were banned, including the Platform for Life, which has 44 seats in the 450-member Ukrainian parliament. Presidential orders were issued mandating the country’s main TV channels to air uniform content approved by government authorities. Even churches affiliated with the Russian Orthodox Church were not spared. Mr Zelensky emerged politically stronger at home as the war dragged on and the West stood firm with him despite his crackdown on political rivals. But recently scams started coming to the fore which tarnished the image of the government. Mr Zelensky last month fired a dozen senior officials, including Deputy Defense Minister Vyacheslav Shapovalov, over corruption. He has now promised that he will clean up the administration. He must also ensure that the pipeline of aid from the West, which exists for his regime, is not disrupted by the war.
Is there any possibility of a negotiated solution?
Soon after the war began, Russian and Ukrainian officials began talks. According to former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, the two sides had exchanged several drafts regarding a possible peace plan in March 2022, but the US and UK strongly opposed Ukraine reaching any agreement with Russia. Did. Talks broke down in March. In July, Turkey struck a deal to evacuate Russian and Ukrainian food grains through the Black Sea. The warring parties had also reached some prisoner exchange agreements. But barring these the talks between the two sides are negligible. Russia, despite the slow progress of its “special military operation”, is adamant. Mr Zelensky recently said he would not reach any agreement with Russia that would entail a territorial settlement. There is absolutely no push for dialogue with the West. As the crisis continues, China has stepped in with its own peace initiative, the details of which are not yet known to the public.
For any peace plan to be successful, two complex issues must be addressed – Ukraine’s territory and Russia’s security concerns. Now, Russia controls large swaths of Ukraine’s land and NATO continues to arm Kiev, exacerbating existing contradictions. Ukraine, given its dependence on the West, would need approval from Western capitals for any final settlement, which also means that for a lasting solution, Washington and Moscow must reach some kind of understanding. As the war enters its second year, the chances of such an understanding are slim. The war grind is fixed.