Farmers’ movement will play an important role in upcoming elections

Not only Tikait but some other farmer leaders have also expressed similar views. Hasn’t this announcement put an end to the core issue? How long will the farmer leaders be able to drag on this movement? Then the question is how much impact will this decision have on the outcome of the upcoming election. It is well known that a large section of the agitating farmers come from the Terai region of Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Barring Haryana, these states have assembly elections early next year.

The farmers’ movement was like a sudden bullet in the hands of the opposition. They were using it to demolish the image of Modi and the fortress of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Has this weapon not been snatched from them now? The Prime Minister chose the occasion of Dev-Deepawali and Prakash Parv to announce this political message. Modi knows that religious beliefs work to heal old wounds. The BJP and its allies have enough time to make up for the loss caused by this movement.

Let’s start with Punjab. The biggest drawback with Amarinder Singh’s popularity was that he was considered close to Modi and Amit Shah, despite being the chief minister of the Congress. As the anger of the farmers of Punjab towards Delhi grew, Amarinder Singh’s reputation began to tarnish. Due to this, his troubles in Congress also started. Now an attempt will be made to present him as a hero. His supporters will say that it is because of the initiative taken by him.

It should also be noted that Amarinder Singh has no enmity with the Akalis either. Years ago, he had been a minister in the Surjit Singh Barnala-led Akali government. Despite political rivalry, he has good relations with the Badal family. Now the Akalis also have no excuse to stay away from the National Democratic Alliance. Will the alliance of BJP, Akali and Amarinder emerge as the new political force in Punjab? Akali Dal chief Sukhbir Singh Badal has ruled out any possibility of an alliance, but denials have a limited lifespan in modern politics. If this alignment unfolds, there is bound to be a triangular fight. It will certainly be challenging for the Congress, which is already facing “anti-incumbency” and internal strife, and the Aam Aadmi Party, which does not have any major local political figures. Badal has ruled out an alliance with the BJP. Repealing three agricultural laws, but this was his immediate reaction and this may change after political calculations.

Similarly, there is an impressive presence of Sikh farmers in some areas of Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh. The BJP now has enough grounds to come close to him. In a small state like Uttarakhand, where every seat is important, 9-10 seats are dominated by Sikh voters. Similar efforts will be made in Jat-dominated areas of western Uttar Pradesh as well. Yogi Adityanath has already gone to Kairana and met the local traders suffering from extortion. The BJP had carefully developed the “Muzaffarnagar model” in 2013. It also had a tremendous impact on the outcome of the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections and the 2017 assembly elections. However, during the farmers’ agitation, BJP lost all the love of the last eight years. Now BJP will try to restore the old equations.

Despite these political possibilities, some unanswered questions remain. Will this pain of 11 months of struggle go away in a jiffy? Will the opposition really lose on this issue? According to Kisan Ekta Morcha, about 600 farmers lost their lives in this movement. An incident like Lakhimpur Kheri also happened. Will the suffering of the families of those victims end? Surely there will be a new war of words in the days to come.

In Punjab and Uttarakhand, the Congress will try its best to take advantage of the repeal of agricultural laws. Rahul Gandhi used to say that the government will have to withdraw these laws. The entire opposition in Uttar Pradesh will do the same. The opposition parties of Uttar Pradesh have deep ties with the farmers. Efforts will be made to send the message that you have won a battle, now is the time to come forward with the rest of your demands. Some new issues and agitations may emerge in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

How successful will these efforts be? There has been no major mass movement in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand in the last five years. Instead of going to the grassroots level, the opposition has been accused of rhetoric on Twitter.

There is no serious resentment against Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh. Despite this, the crowd in Akhilesh Yadav’s public meetings is increasing. He was considered successful in making this election bipolar. For this reason, questions were being raised whether the Bahujan Samaj Party would fail to expand its core vote bank despite raising slogans for Brahmins? Priyanka Gandhi is also trying to attract women voters. Where will it take you? In the midst of this political debate, will this announcement of the Prime Minister be able to give a new twist to the equation? It will be interesting to see whether the opposition succeeds in projecting this issue as the defeat of the government in the coming days or whether the ruling party manages to take advantage of it more than its opponents.

Apart from all this noise, there is also a question that has been waiting for decades: when and how will the condition of the sons of the earth improve?

Shashi Shekhar is the editor-in-chief of Hindustan. Views expressed are personal.