The year-long farmers’ protest against the three agriculture laws was expected to play a decisive role in a state like Uttar Pradesh, where farmers form an important voting block, given that more than two-thirds of households are engaged in farming activities. .
However, there seems to be a repeat of 2019, where, despite BJP’s massive discontent over farmers, the party has again successfully neutralized anti-government sentiment.
Evidence from a post-poll survey conducted by Lokniti-CSDS indicates that the BJP-led alliance is enjoying a comfortable edge over the Samajwadi Party (SP)-led alliance among farmer voters and farmers’ families voters. The better performance of SP seems to be mainly due to support from non-agricultural households.
As Table 1 highlights, the BJP-led alliance has a 13 percentage point lead over the SP among voters from farmer families, while among voters from non-agricultural households, the two parties stand shoulder to shoulder. .
When we segregate voters from farmer families on the basis of their stand with regard to farmers’ protest, the BJP is also found to be 10 percentage points ahead of the SP among sympathizers.
Among nearly half of the farmer households that either oppose or are not committed to the protest, the BJP has a lead of four and 23 percentage points, respectively.
So what is the explanation for this overwhelming support to the BJP despite the farmer families registering dissatisfaction?
quell anger
Apart from withdrawing controversial agriculture laws, the survey suggests that direct cash transfers through the PM Kisan Samman Nidhi would have helped the BJP pacify angry farmers.
As Table 2 indicates, about three-fifths of farming households claim to have benefited from the scheme. In this, the BJP has a huge lead of about 20 percent over the SP. Among non-profits, SP is just two points behind.
Not only this, even before the elections began, the issue of stray cattle seemed like an extraordinary issue, potentially hurting the prospects of the BJP. Three-fifths of the voters of farmer families consider this to be a very important issue, but even among such voters the BJP is marginally ahead.
Perhaps, gains under PM Kisan softened their anger – the BJP’s lead increased to seven points among beneficiaries, while the SP is ahead by six points among non-beneficiaries.
The other three issues related to farmers – the issue of crop payment, the farmers’ agitation and the Lakhimpur Kheri incident, however, have benefited the SP-led alliance significantly.
Considering these issues to be very important while voting for voters from farmer families, the SP enjoys a comfortable lead of six, 11 and 16 percentage points respectively.
Manjesh Rana is Research Associate at Lokniti-CSDS. Akhilesh Pal is Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science, Allahabad University, Prayagraj