Riding on the Narendra Modi wave, a bitter split in non-Yadav OBC and non-Jatav Dalit castes as well as its traditional upper caste vote bank and Muslim vote, the BJP came to power in Uttar Pradesh in 2017. With a 40% vote share and 312 seats, a feat no party has achieved in more than two decades.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP’s vote-share rose to 50% despite the SP-BSP alliance, which got 38% votes. In Uttar Pradesh Election 2022, SP and BSP are contesting the elections separately, but the former claims that he is alone with a large caste union by his side under the banner of ‘social justice’ (social justice), a phrase coined by the former party chief. Government will be formed. Minister Akhilesh Yadav.
This claim is further strengthened with non-Yadav OBC leaders from both the BJP and the BSP making a way for the Samajwadi Party. BJP leaders claim that such leaders are no longer representatives of non-Yadav OBCs, who remain firmly with the BJP under Narendra Modi, “India’s biggest OBC leader”, while SP leaders claim that if its If the caste count turns out to be correct, it may cross 300 seats this time.
UP Caste Arithmetic
Let us first understand the arithmetic of UP caste. According to estimates by political parties, the state is made up of roughly 25-27% general castes (including 10% Brahmins and 7% Thakurs), 39%-40% OBCs (including 7-9% Yadavs and 4% Nishads). About 20% SC and ST (including 10% Jatav), and 16-19% Muslim population. No definite percentage is known for each caste, as no caste census has been conducted.
There are five main voting groups in UP – upper castes, Muslims, non-Yadav OBCs, Yadavs and Jatavs. Governments in UP in the past have been formed by securing votes from non-Yadav OBCs to two full groups and BITS with just 30% vote share – SP did with its Muslim-Yadav combination in 2012 and BSP with its 2007 . Muslim-Jatav alliance. With BJP and Congress then small players in a multi-cornered contest, the SP and BSP were able to do so.
What changed in 2017
Riding on the Narendra Modi wave since 2014, the BJP went with a clear pitch to consolidate non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav SCs in its favor in the 2017 UP elections. He did this on three pitches. One, he had given benefits of various schemes launched by the Center to all these communities from toilets to LPG cylinders.
Second, it gave way to his desperation that Yadavs and Jatavs, along with Muslims, captured all appeasement in the SP and BSP regimes respectively. The non-Yadav OBCs were unhappy with the anarchy of the Yadavs in the SP regime.
Three, the BJP presented four faces on its banner in Rajnath Singh (Thakur), Kalraj Mishra (Brahmin), Keshav Maurya (Maurya, non-Yadav OBC) and Uma Bharti (Lodh, non-Yadav OBC).
Brajesh Pathak, the Brahmin face of BSP has been included along with Rita Bahuguna Joshi. Swami Prasad Maurya From BSP, Kurmi face Apna Dal’s Anupriya Patel was inducted into the council of ministers as a non-Yadav OBC face.
After Yadavs, Mauryas with 6–7% and Kurmis 5% were the largest non-Yadav OBC vote bank in UP. The population of Lodh is 3% so Kalyan Singh’s grandson was made the minister of UP.
In short, the BJP targeted more than 60% of the vote bank – 10% Brahmin votes, 12% Thakur and Vaishya voters, 33% non-Yadav OBC votes and 7-10% non-Jatav Dalit votes. It managed to get 40% of the vote in 2017 as it got the votes of about three and a half major groups.
Furthermore, the Muslim vote got split between the SP-Congress alliance and the BSP. While Muslims voted for the alliance in West UP, where they form 29% of the electorate, Muslims in other parts of UP voted for the BSP.
Jats with 2% of the OBC population also voted for the BJP to some extent. In 2019, BJP made this formula to get more than 50% vote share.
Have things changed now?
SP says situation has changed in 2021 as BJP has made ‘Thakur’ chief minister Yogi Adityanath, It added that some of his actions have angered Brahmins as well as non-Yadav OBCs, and that BJP’s caste bank has been shattered. This, it says, points to the SP of such leaders, which includes three OBC ministers.
SP also says that the election is now bipolar, BSP and Congress are on edge. Therefore, he believes that the entire anti-BJP vote, especially the Muslim vote, will go to the SP without any division.
The political wisdom in the state is that this time whichever party crosses 35% vote share, it will be able to form the government. The BJP, however, maintains that the non-Yadav OBC voter stays with it and the dropping of some leaders of that community will not affect the electorate.
It states that all the three ministers who left the BJP had come from the BSP in the last election and were not “true workers of the BJP”. The BJP believes that Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath are highly popular.
The BJP believes it will not go below 40% vote share, and will easily form the government despite the state’s three-decade-old political custom to vote for the government and no party will repeat a term.
It cites how it may have lost Om Prakash Rajbhar as an ally since 2017 when Rajbhar has 1-2% of the population, but has now got the Nishad Party as an ally, which has an ally in UP. 4-5% of the population. BJP leaders claim that despite best efforts SP will not cross the 30% vote mark and BSP will remain a factor with at least 20% vote share in 2022.
Which side will caste arithmetic favor? We will know on March 10.
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