Data released by the Office for National Statistics shows that the economy is growing at 8.7% in 2021-22, while the growth slowed to 4.1% in the January-March quarter. To put the numbers in context, the 8.7% expansion comes against a backdrop of a much lower base as the economy shrank by 6.6% in the previous period, one of the world’s strictest lockdowns to contain the spread . covid 19 pandemic.
NSO Earlier the growth rate was estimated to be 8.9%. Looking at data from the previous series, the 8.7% growth is the highest since 8.8% in FY 2000, and the highest in 17 years under the current series, which has 17 years of data.
The latest numbers for 2021-22 make India one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies, although the pace of expansion in the coming months will be tested by the need to raise interest rates to cope with high inflation and price pressures. Will go
“Recoveries have been consolidated. Many areas have captured pre-pandemic levels of activity. India is in a better position than many other countries and the financial sector is far better positioned to support growth,” Chief Economic Adviser V Ananth Nageswaran said.
India’s economy has scripted a strong recovery following the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, but it has faced several headwinds in recent months such as high inflation and high food and fuel requirements due to the effects of the war in Ukraine. Struggling with costs. Breakdowns in supply chains, which have also borne the brunt of a strict lockdown in China to contain the outbreak of the latest coronavirus variant.
The latest data showed that the agriculture sector grew by 3% in 2021-22 as against the previous year’s expansion of 3.3%, while manufacturing grew by 9.9% compared to a contraction of 0.6% and construction declined by 7.3 An increase of 11.5% against % in 2020-21. Services related to trade, hotels, transport, communication and broadcasting grew by 11.1% compared to a contraction of 20.2%, while public administration, defense and other services grew by 12.6% compared to a contraction of 5.5%. Barring manufacturing, all other sectors saw tremendous growth in the January-March quarter. Manufacturing decreased by 0.2%, while manufacturing increased by 2%, reflecting the impact of restrictions imposed in the wake of the Omicron version of the coronavirus. The agriculture sector was the mainstay in the fourth quarter of 2021-22, growing at 4.1% compared to an expansion of 2.2% in the previous year’s quarter.
Aditi nairRating agency ICRA’s chief economist said the slowdown witnessed in India’s GDP growth to a four-quarter low of 4.1% in Q4 FY2022 was inevitable, stemming from the adverse impact of the third wave on connectivity services and higher commodity prices on margins. Was. , as well as adverse base effects. It said the service sector was the main driver of 3.9% GVA (Gross Value Added) growth in Q4 FY2022. Buoyed by government spending, Public Administration, Defense and Other Services (PADOS) emerged as the fastest growing sub-sector of GVA in the fourth quarter of FY 2022. Excluding paddos, GVA growth in Q4 FY2022 stood at a muted 3.3%, according to Nair.
The Finance Ministry said that GDP growth in 2021-22 has recovered to surpass the pre-pandemic level of 2019-20, with strong recovery in several sectors excluding trade, hotels, transport and communication services Is.
“The decline in GDP growth for the last fiscal year was expected as the Omicron version and the Russia-Ukraine war started in the previous quarter. Now the Indian economy in FY22 is 1.8% compared to the projected year before pre-pandemic level ( FY20) only 1.5%. But the good thing is that the estimates for both private consumption and fixed investment estimates are a touch higher than before,” said DK Joshi, chief economist at rating agency CRISIL.
Economists said the 8.7% GDP growth in 2021-22 was largely driven by a lower base, but the numbers showed a solid improvement.
“Given the 6.6 per cent decline in GDP in the previous year, the base was certainly low. But given that Omicron hit us in fiscal 2012 and the Ukraine-Russia war began on February 24, a recovery of 8.7% is excellent news. The recovery also reflects solid fundamentals on a broader basis,” Arvind Panagariya, professor of economics at Columbia University, said on Twitter.