New Delhi: In the early 1980s, Congress veteran Madhavsinh Solanki came up with the KHAM formula to build a loyal vote bank for the party in Gujarat and retain power in this western state. Kham stood for Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim – the four major caste groups that the Grand Old Party was targeting. Nearly four decades later, the Congress is left in that combination with only Harijans (SCs) and Muslims, with Kshatriyas and Adivasis standing behind the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, much to the detriment of Patidars and other upper castes. kind castes
The 2017 assembly election was the closest contest between the BJP and the Congress in at least two decades. Riding on the Patidar movement led by Hardik Patel, and trying to stir up caste sentiments among Dalits and OBCs through Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakor, the Congress sensed an opportunity to oust the BJP in Modi’s home state.
However, the BJP returned to power with fewer seats. It saw a slight drop in support for Patidars and OBCs, but increased its vote share among Dalits and Muslims between 16 per cent and 7 per cent.
Patel and Thakor are now with the BJP.
The 2019 Lok Sabha elections strengthened the confidence of Gujarat under Modi’s leadership.
According to the CSDS’s post-poll survey, 82 per cent upper castes, 63 per cent Patidars, 58 per cent Kshatriya-Thakors, 78 per cent Kolis and 61 per cent STs voted for the saffron party.
With 48 per cent, OBCs are the largest voting block in Gujarat, followed by STs at around 15 per cent. The Kshatriya-Thakors and Kolis together make up 44 per cent of the OBCs, while the Bhils make up 46 per cent of the ST population.
Other powerful constituencies are Patidars (11 percent), Muslims (9 percent) and Scheduled Castes (7 percent).
A region-wise analysis by Ashoka University’s Trivedi Center for Political Data (TCPD) shows that the BJP has been able to maintain a lead in central Gujarat in consecutive elections. Central Gujarat sends maximum number of MLAs to the Vidhan Sabha- 61.
South Gujarat also remains a BJP stronghold, while the Congress is marginally stronger in the northern parts of the state.
Another player in Gujarat politics is the Tribal Party of India which primarily garners support among the ST population of the state.
With the entry of Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), political observers feel that the state will see a truly triangular contest in decades. The good performance in the last civic polls has given AAP the impetus to throw all its might against both the BJP and the Congress.
Asaduddin Owaisi-led AIMIM is also eyeing Muslim votes. However, some analysts believe that these two parties will actually cut Congress votes, thereby benefiting the BJP.
Some opinion polls have also predicted a victory for the BJP in Gujarat.